Friday December 8, 2023

12/8/2023

Just a heads up that I will be in the City of Ships of Bath for the next couple of days to call a basketball tournament at the Hyde School. I will have my laptop, and I will update from there Saturday morning. How in-depth of an update is to be determined. Knowing that, this update should provide a pretty good idea of what to expect Sunday into Monday.

Wind, rain, and snow knocking on the doorstep
to start the week

As time moves closer to the storm, the more interesting it gets. Where Vermont was looking at a washout maybe looking at a decent snowfall. The axis of rain has shifted east over Maine. Wind continues to be the greatest concern. The good news is that it appears to be a quick hitter, but it is expected to bring a punch and leave a mess in its wake.

Back to the future

One thing experienced forecasters look at when it comes to figuring out storm potential are analogs from previous events. Occasionally they line up in range. This is a great tool to look back on to help guide prospective outcomes.

This storm from Thanksgiving Day in 2013 is near what is expected with this one. A deep trough moving in south of Florida driving up a juicy moisture hose (atmospheric river) with a lead low pressure system and disturbances riding along the frontal boundary.

The storm was a corker. From what information I could dig up from various sources, roughly 1½-3½" of rain fell, along with wind gusts between 40-70 mph (Mount Washington peaking at 102 mph). Newspaper reports provided pictures of flooding, wind damage, and reports of power outages that ruined some holiday dinners and had municipal crews clearing storm drains where streets turned into rivers.

This is the forecast from the Weather Prediction Center for Monday.

Buckle up. Here we go again.

Still some wiggle room which could alter the outcome

Where once the ideas were tracking along the St. Lawrence River, it has shifted more of a south to north track that drives the parent low through the heart of the state up into eastern Quebec.

The concern with track on the one is the cold air to the northwest that comes in behind the parent low. A more eastward shift brings the idea of snow becoming more of factor. With the neighboring Kingdom of Vermont potentially seeing a winter storm watch, the cold is a player here.

With the surge of moisture being driven in by a a strong low-level jet at around 2,000 feet aloft that could peak out at 90-100 knots, along with the risk of heavy rain makes the wind a double edged sword. There is both the horizontal and vertical downdraft threats to consider here. A wind advisory is a given for the coast. A high wind watch / warning is likely to come for MidCoast and DownEast areas.

The wind is expected to gradually pick up Sunday afternoon with the highest gusts starting around midnight Monday, ending from west to east between 8 AM to around noon.

A northwest wind comes in on the backside and will continue through Tuesday and diminish Wednesday.

Secure your holiday displays.

The ground is frozen at this point over 95% of the region. The rain has no place to go but into brooks, streams, small rivers, roads, and basements. The Weather Prediction Center has the entire state under a marginal risk of flash flooding. There will likely be snow melt over the coastal interior on up into the foothills which may flood some of the smaller rivers. The snowpack in the mountains have the capacity to absorb quite a bit. It's a timing game of the arrival of the cold that determines when the damage ends.

Don't be surprised if there is some thunder involved here. With deep cold close, it could be loud.

The snow ideas have shifted east as the ideas on track have gone that way. I don't take a whole lot of stock in this outcome anything more than a bit of backside paste as the storm heads for Labrador. This could change.

The one thing ALL AREAS need to be concerned about is falling temperatures. It's expected that there will be a nocturnal high around midnight Monday, and with the frontal passage, temperatures drop below freezing in the mountains in the afternoon, over the foothills on up into northern areas by mid-evening, and the coast by Tuesday morning as the northwest wind rushes the cold in.

Can you say, "skating rink"? Black ice city. Sharpen your wheel studs and have your creepers on your boots. You may need them.

The shorelines are likely to get trashed. That high tide Monday morning that is expected to run about 1-1½' above due to astronomical levels, add the potential for storm surge, and the wave action. I am going with the idea of minor coastal flooding for now, but that could be elevated pending on how this plays out.

Stay tuned.

Prepare now.

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Stay updated, stay on alert, and stay safe!

- Mike

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