Pieces coming together for the weekend A weak area of high pressure slides through the region on Friday. The breezy conditions begin to relax heading into the afternoon. A weak cold front passes through tonight, which may bring a few charity flakes to the mountains and north. Saturday starts off with temperatures near normal for this time of year. Wind appears light for most areas. Clouds will be on the increase as the storm to the southwest advances northeastward. All about SundayI mentioned on Facebook and Twitter / X Thursday afternoon that I was holding off the first crack at a snowfall map due to the uncertainty displayed in operational model ideas. I want to make something perfectly clear. I am not taking a shot at the media or NWS by saying that. I have great respect for most of those folks that serve our region. Sometimes their hands get forced and are put in uncomfortable situations due to circumstances. I feel for them at times because I see how awkward can get. Since I am the sole proprietor of this microbusiness, I can do whatever I want, and when I chose to do it. Being independent has its advantages in that regard. When ideas get squirrely, I am going to tell you, so you can be on the lookout for it. This is NOT an attack on them. Patience in the forecasting business is a luxury for those who can afford to have it. Fortunately, I have that option, which better serves you. I could write a novel on bust potential at this point in regards to Sunday. This sneaky little bugger is annoying. Leading up to this point, I've discussed in prior post how the upper-level ridge may suppress the storm to the south. I've mentioned dry air potentially eating away at accumulations. Then there is the track, intensity, and speed. All of these questions are still on the table to be solved.  The general idea with the European ensemble mean is for the storm to pass around the benchmark 40°N / 70°W point. The model solution thinks the high to the north will be weaker, which will allow frozen precipitation to cover more area. Ensemble ideas indicate a potential slow down of forward progress, which would support a stronger low to develop, as the polar trough driver has a chance to catch up and engage with it more. This is where totals could bust on the high end.  On the flip side, the GFS ensemble respects the high to the north as being a bit stronger which allows the ridge to play more of a role in the outcome. The low to the northeast of Newfoundland could throw a back handed slap into this, also. The stronger that is, that amplifies the ridge which would keep the storm to the south. This is where totals could bust on the low end.  This is an all snow event for 99% of the region. The islands may see a mix with the 41° ocean temperature playing a role. The town of York and Kittery shorelines have a chance for a mix also, pending on the wind direction. If more northeast, less chance, if more to the east, a better chance. Liquid equivalent ranges from a tenth of an inch or less to the north, to roughly 1" to the far south. A fluffy snow should be enjoyed by most, which will make it easy to move. A better idea on snowfall amounts comes overnight Friday, and I will update this on Saturday.  Saturday noon to Monday 2 AM - A rough idea on timing here. There could be some ocean effect snow showers that fire up ahead of the storm that could cause some slick spots for the shoreline towns Saturday afternoon. Snow begins to move in Saturday night, with accumulations on the ground to start Sunday morning over southwestern areas and continuing to pile up through the day. Steady snow tapers to snow showers Sunday evening, and ends from west to east Sunday night. Time to turn up the volume for Wednesday For the record, I despise talking about storms a week out given the volatility of guidance, but once in a blue moon there is one that could be so impactful that it would be a disservice not to mention it. This is that one. With the storm coming Sunday and you folks preparing for that, you can get ready for a more impactful one midweek. The ideas floating around are for a sub 970mb inside runner positioned in western Quebec by Wednesday afternoon. The storm that went through New Hampshire and punched us before Christmas was around 975mb pressure. This storm would be stronger than that. I don't like using hurricane comparisons since these synoptic storms are a completely different beast, but if the sub 970mb idea comes to verify, that would be a high end CAT2 hurricane if it were a warm core tropical system. It's not, but that does not mean it does not deserve respect for what impacts that it could have on the area. This could go one or two ways. If a secondary low forms offshore, that will take the wind out of it to a certain extent. There will be some for sure, but not this crazy as you see above. If this idea you see above verifies, we're going to get smoked. Long term power outages in January are never good. To add to the concern, there is a chance for a sucker punch storm next weekend.  The idea for now is for snow to start off. If the secondary low forms, that would bring heavy wet snow. If a secondary low doesn't form, then snow changes to rain, and interior flooding may be a potential issue. Unless ideas drastically change, I don't see how the region escapes without some level of widespread impacts and power loss. I want to be 100% wrong here, but the volume on this idea is extremely loud and cannot be ignored. Prepare now. Please support my efforts Thank you to Allspeed Cyclery & Snow in Portland, Downeast Aerial Photography in Rockland, Dutch Elm Golf Club in Arundel, and Sunrise Property Services in Bridgton, for partnering with Pine Tree Weather. Special thanks to all the individuals who financially contribute. I sincerely appreciate your support. Stay updated, stay on alert, and stay safe! - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the Who I Am page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
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