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Before I get into the forecast, I wanted to say thanks to those who financially contribute to the cause here. Whether it is by Patreon, Venmo, or by simply sending a check, you folks are the ones that keep the lights on here for me. Truth be known, I make very little to no money out of this. I've poured roughly $20,000 of my own money into this between forecast data and college over the years because I wanted to do this the right way. I knew back years ago that the state of Maine lacked weather coverage, and there was a serious gap between the TV outlets and NOAA, and I have tried to fill that. It has all come with great personal sacrifice at times in the amount of time this requires and the physical toll on my arthritic hands that I have mustered through here recently, not to mention sacrifice in time with my wife, daughters, and friends. If you like what I do, please support what I do, and thank you to those that do. We are under a constant state of flash flood watch I hate beating on a dead horse here, but this is the reality, and it will be until further notice. There may not be official bulletins from the National Weather Service, but that doesn't matter. Torrential rain is going to happen. I've posted 1-hour flash flood guidance charts periodically over the past week to help drive the point home that the ground cannot absorb water anymore. It will want to run off, whether by road, brook, stream, river, or your basement. Where there is heavy rain, the threat of flash flooding is going to be there. By the time a bulletin is broadcast, impacts will already be occurring. When heavy rain happens, expect flash flooding. Shower and storm threat Friday afternoon into the overnight Friday Noon to Saturday 6 AM - I will be right out front here and mention the short-term convection allowing models (CAMs) have been a bit jumpy with their ideas. The reason being is how they are treating the ongoing convection downstream, which ironically enough is causing convective feedback issues. The bottom line here is that showers and storms are expected in the afternoon into the evening. There is a fair chance for strong to severe storms where the sun comes out, with damaging wind a concern. The influx of dew points into the 70s over southern areas and precipitable water values in the 2"+ range mean rainfall rates 1-3"+ per hour. I had a situation here in Kennebunk a year ago in similar conditions where my weather station recorded a rainfall rate as high as 11" per hour. Granted, I didn't get 11" of rain in an hour, but the point here is the velocity of it. For southern areas, heavy rain is expected to hit during the evening drive. Stay on alert and plan accordingly.  Saturday 6 AM to Sunday Midnight - I don't expect the day to be a complete washout, but there will be some showers and storms around. With the dew points high and the amount of convective available potential energy (CAPE) around, the sun is poison in this situation. If the sun comes out, expect the thunder guns to come out, as storm development could happen quickly. Storms could be strong to severe and bring damaging wind along with a boatload of rain. Sunday likely to be a washout for most of the state |
Mike Haggett
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