Guidance still playing games with potential storm Thursday

The spring model circus continues

Here's your voice of rationality about late week storm potential. Beware of the hype! As I told you the other day on this very website, models are showing signs of spring by their erratic behavior. As I mentioned on Facebook Sunday morning, the Canadian GGEM model was showing hints that a trailing low could end up in the Gulf of Maine and bring a solid snow event. Now that today's morning model suites have all come in, now it is the European deterministic model that has the idea. 

So now some may say "Well the Euro is the most reliable model and we need to think we're going to get nailed..." 

​Just relax. 

The difference between the European
​deterministic and ensembles 

The European deterministic run is now the sole outlier in regards to this event.  Yes, it is true that is it brings the storm into the Gulf of Maine. But before you go out and grab bread, milk, and think the kids will be in school until the Fourth of July due to all the snow days, you may want to look at this...

Since operational and deterministic model ideas spread like wildfire on social media, I thought it would be important to show you the rest of the story. Taking out the deterministic bias of all 51 ensemble members and giving each an equal say in output, the track is further east. With the further east track southeast of Nova Scotia, this would mean less of an impact.

So what about possible snow?

Let's take a look at the European ensemble mean snowfall potential from both the 00z and 12z runs from Sunday:

As I have been saying for the past couple of days, I have mentioned the MidCoast and DownEast areas have been my concern for snow with this trailing low, and that the coastal plain as a whole could see some snow out of this. The European model idea has been consistent with that idea. This chart above is that from the 00z (8 PM Saturday) overnight model run.

The ensemble idea did shift westward a bit on the 12z (8 AM Sunday) morning run...

All in all, it's a manageable amount of snow to deal with. Again, it's the MidCoast and DownEast areas that could get the higher amounts. 

In this time of model volatility, it is always the safer bet to look at ensemble ideas like this rather than to purely rely on deterministic or operational models. More times than not, they are wrong this far out, and especially in seasonal change.

NOTE: This is not the final answer here. Tomorrow's runs will help eliminate some of the bias and feedback noise to help iron out the forecast.  This is purely for discussion purposes and to present possibilities.

For the newcomers...

For those regulars who have followed this page for awhile, you'll have to pardon me here as I educate some of the newcomers... be very careful where you get your weather information from. If they aren't showing you or telling you what the possible options are, you should find another source. Model volatility due to the change of seasons is increasing due to spring's astronomical approach on Tuesday. With many folks on edge after three NorEasters in the past two weeks, there are people who will prey on you and will spread ideas that are driven for shares and attention. I don't work that way. ​​ 

Integrity in forecasting is always number one with me.

Beware of the hype!

​Stay tuned.

- Mike

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