Henri misses Maine, but remnants linger through Tuesday

8/21/2021

Henri accelerates toward southern New England

Henri officially became a hurricane according to the National Hurricane Center's 11 AM Saturday advisory. Tropical storm warnings are posted for southeastern Massachusetts, Martha's Vineyard / Nantucket, and west of New Haven, CT to Port Jefferson Harbor, NJ, which also includes New York City. Hurricane warnings are posted from Westport, MA to New Haven, and includes Block Island.

Satellite image of Henri through 3 PM shows acceleration of the storm offshore of the Carolinas and parallel to the DelMarVa peninsula, well west of land for now. An upper-level trough is on pace to steer Henri towards Long Island and southern Connecticut, with landfall expected late afternoon on Sunday. The storm will run into cooler ocean waters before making landfall, then slow to a crawl over central Connecticut, advancing into western Massachusetts early Monday.

Scattered showers and breeze from Henri
Sunday through Tuesday

As typical with tropical systems, the wind, severe potential and storm surge occurs predominantly on the right front quadrant of the storm, and rain on the left front quadrant. This model idea from the NAM shows that well. Outer bands from Henri spin into southern Maine Sunday morning and spread into the mountains by Sunday afternoon. There is a chance for a thunderstorm and/or downpours within those bands, but the main concern with severe potential appears likely for central and southeastern Massachusetts, and Rhode Island.

As the storm weakens, showers and isolated thunderstorms are likely to become more scattered on Monday, to widely scattered on Tuesday.

The big rain is likely to be an issue for northwest Connecticut, western Massachusetts including the Berkshires, on over to the Albany, NY area. Flash flooding and flood warnings are possible there. For Maine, an easterly wind flow pumps moisture in off the Gulf of Maine and could enhance rainfall amounts on up into the eastern facing slopes of the White Mountains and the taller hills into the western mountains where rain would be graciously appreciated there.

Wind will be the main concern for eastern Long Island into central Connecticut and western Massachusetts Sunday, then diminish as Henri weakens. For Maine, the shorelines could see gusts upwards of 25-30 mph from the east, but it will be more of a stiff breeze than anything.

The best chance for coastal flooding appears to be the high tide around midnight Monday. With the easterly breeze off the ocean and the tide astronomically high, some minor flooding and potentially some splash over in exposed areas from 4-6' swells are possible.

Next chance for rain Thursday

After the remnants of Henri pass to the east on Tuesday, this will set up a sunny, warm humid day on Wednesday. A cold front advances into the region from the northwest on Thursday, which brings a chance for showers and storms statewide. The state appears to snap the long period of humidity on Friday, with more seasonable temperatures headed in for the weekend.

CoCoRaHS precipitation reports are needed in Maine!

Ever wanted to take rain or snow measurements? Join CoCoRaHS or Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow Network. This volunteer network of observers measures precipitation from their backyards. Any age can volunteer. Data is used by NWS meteorologists to help with forecasts. For more information ► https://www.cocorahs.org/state.aspx?state=me

Temperature outlook through Thursday

Warm, humid nights continue statewide through much of the week ahead. Temperatures remain above normal through most of the period.

Be prepared to receive alerts and stay updated!

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► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins, and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

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Stay updated, stay on alert, and stay safe!

- Mike

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