Isolated showers Thursday, showers and storms Friday night into Saturday; update for the Fourth

Front departs, trailing wave may bring
​a shower Thursday

The month of June wraps up a bit on the cool side and generally fair for much of the region. A cold front passing through Maine early Thursday morning heads into New Brunswick. The ridge over the Midwest brings a warm front into the region Friday. After a quick hit of heat and humidity, a cold front passes through Saturday, bringing a shower and thunderstorm threat. An upper-low hangs around for the duration of the holiday weekend.

The best chance for a shower is over northern and eastern areas through the afternoon. I can't rule out a stray shower for the south and west which may pop up. The warmest temperatures for the day will be for the southwest interior where readings could reach the low 80s. Northern areas may make a run at 70° later in the day if the clouds clear long enough.

Clouds remain in the forecast overnight as warm air works in aloft, with isolated showers with a rumble of thunder possible for the mountains, north, and east overnight into Friday morning.  While temperatures are expected to be warm in the 80s (~90° for the southwest interior) dew point temperatures aren't expected to be oppressive but will be noticeable in the low-60s.

Frontal boundary passes through on Saturday

Friday 8 AM to Sunday 2 AM - There is still a fair amount of uncertainty about the timing of the cold front as ideas remain scattered. Showers and isolated thunder are possible Friday night into Saturday everywhere. As the front approaches, there could be a lull where the sky clears over the coastal plain, and if that idea happens, storms could fire up Saturday afternoon into early evening given the amount of humidity around.  The mountains and north may see the front slip to the southeast enough where the rain ends, and clouds break up heading mid to late afternoon.

For now, the best chance for severe storms is over southern New England. The main threat for Maine appears to be heavy rain and gusty wind associated with tropical downpours. Expect humidity levels to be oppressive on Saturday until dry air works in behind the front late Saturday afternoon into early Sunday morning.  

Outlook for the rest of the weekend

Saturday 8 PM to Tuesday 2 AM - A look at the forecast upper-level energy here indicates the pinwheeling of waves through the region as the trough aloft holds in place. How this translates to the sky and surface is the idea of sun and clouds, and if the wave is potent enough, a risk of a shower. While I believe that the coastal plain remains dry over the rest of the weekend, northern areas may deal with some widely scattered showers at times Sunday into Monday. If the upper low dips a bit further south, that may bring the risk of a shower further south. 

Temperatures are expected to be a bit cool but comfortable heading into next week. 

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- Mike

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