June 30th, 2023

A look at the steering level

"Hey Mike, this weather is CRAZY!"  I don't know how many times I have heard that over the years. That is the thing about the weather. The atmosphere is doing its job trying to keep balance and creates mayhem in order to maintain control.  Last year at this time, many were wondering if it was ever going to rain. This year, people are wondering when it is going to stop. 

In the short term, we'll have a bit of a pause. There could be a few showers and a rumble in the mountains and north today. The next upper-low over central Canada gradually slides to the east-southeast and brings moisture back into the picture on Sunday.

The heat dome over the south relaxes a bit, and blocking to the north and east subsides somewhat into next week, which will assist keeping the flow going, It may be a bit slow, but not like what we've seen here in the past week. We may get a dry stretch starting Wednesday for a couple of days, which is also encouraging, but not in time to salvage the holiday weekend. 

Training Storms 101:
​Thursday Revisited

I mentioned this threat in Thursday's update, and unfortunately it came to fruition. The set up is a slow-moving frontal boundary being fed copious moisture. The sun came out for a time which was enough to raise warm, moist air into a low ceiling of cold air at roughly 11,000 feet and all hell broke loose. It's a perfect exhibit of how training storms develop, and the inflow keeps feeding into them to backfill and keep pumping. The only way this ends is with the sunset to cool off the atmosphere, and that is what happened here. 

Storm reports to the National Weather Service Gray office and a few photos I have seen and got reports of showed the impacts of flooded and washed-out roads. Seeing how the pattern is lining up for July and August, I expect to see more of this. A Bermuda high pumps in moisture from the southwest as approaching troughs enter in from the northwest. A bit of sun and the atmospheric fuse gets lit. We didn't get much in the way of severe weather in the spring. We may make up for that. 

It will be vitally important to stay updated on the weather and have ways to receive alerts, then take appropriate action. 

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Outlook through the Fourth

One simple loop of the 700mb moisture level (altimeter 10,000 feet) from Friday morning to early Wednesday to paint the picture. While the idea remains mainly dry for Friday and Saturday (sans a shower in the mountains and coastal fog), the upper low moves east on Sunday. Shower and storm chances increase during the day. There is potential for areas of heavy rain and storms Sunday night into Monday, The upper low spins overhead on the Fourth, which keeps the threat for showers and storms going for the holiday itself. 

The dew points may dip a bit over the north Friday and drop a few degrees to the south, but the humid air fills back in as the upper-low drags moisture in from the south.  Areas of fog are going to be a thing, especially for the coast and areas that receive heavy rainfall.

Rainfall amounts through the holiday appear to be in the 1-2" range statewide, with most of it falling in the Sunday afternoon through Monday timeframe, with locally higher and lower amounts possible. 

Temperatures will generally be in the 70s for highs and 60s for lows, cooler DownEast where the fog may be persistent. A few 80s are possible, cloud cover dependent. 

My next planned update will come Sunday morning. 

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Stay updated, stay on alert, and stay safe!

- Mike

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