Light snow for the north Wednesday, a decent snow for the south Thursday night into Friday

1/17/2023

A break from the junk storms... for now

The storm responsible for Monday's mess of sleet and freezing rain spins around the Gulf of St. Lawrence through Wednesday. It's a blessing in the way that is there as it blocks an upper level ridge moving in from the southwest. A system over the Great Lakes will bring a round of icy, sleety junk to eastern New York and Vermont Tuesday night into early Wednesday, and slips off to the southeast of the region and misses Maine. Energy over the southwest ejects northeastward, and that is the source for the next storm on the way Thursday night into Friday.

Light snow for northern areas,
isolated spotty mix or rain south for Wednesday

Wednesday 3 AM to 9 PM - As upper level energy pinwheels around the remnants of Monday's storm, snow showers in light to moderate intensity are possible over the far north. While that is going on, a warm front associated with the upper level ridge sticks its nose in over the south and may bring light pockets of freezing rain, sleet, a snow shower or a straight rain shower.

Folks in the north may see 1-3" of snow and may have a few slick spots. I don't expect any travel issues in south of any concern.

Snow on the way Thursday night into Friday

Thursday 6 PM to Saturday 1 AM - This is a nocturnal event which is helpful to keep this mostly snow. Snow and perhaps a bit of a mix along the southwest and MidCoast areas breaks out Thursday night. The storm is rather flat and doesn't begin to crank until it passes south of Nova Scotia Friday night. Most of the precipitation is down with this one by daylight Friday over the south and by mid-morning over the east. An inverted trough set up keeps periodic snow showers going through the day, and may not end until Friday night.

Since it is flat in nature, wind is not concern with this one. Some areas over the interior protected from the northeast breeze won't get wind. Shorelines may push 30-35, with DownEast shorelines likely to record the higher end speeds.

For those with shoreline area concerns, I don't expect any concerns with coastal flooding with this event. Seas in the 3-6' range may bring some splash over, but that is typical with the astronomical tides on good day. We won't experience anything like what was seen with the Grinch storm. We'll dodge a bullet on this one.

The highest amounts are expected over the south. The southwest coastal shorelines are a bit of question with the coastal front which may bring a mix and keep totals down there. There is certain amount of fluff factor with this over interior areas so that might "add" to the total theoretically, but we're talking roughly ¼ - ½"+ of water in frozen form here in the darker blues.

The day won't be a total loss for travel. Outside of the snow showers that may add an inch or two in spots through Friday night which is factored into the totals above, it will be business as usual for Maine in January.

The train keeps rolling

Saturday 7 PM to Thursday 7 PM - Looking at the European ensemble mean here shows the pattern continuing to be active. The next storm comes in from the south which is a common track for "Miller A" type NorEaster which could impact the area the first of next week, along with a similar storm potential for Wednesday into Thursday.

Where the coast dodges a potential problem with the astronomical tides on Friday, the tides will at maximum highs on Monday.

Timing, intensity, impact, precipitation type all to be determined. For now, just know there is the chance.

Temperature outlook through Sunday

We are in the coldest part of the year climatologically speaking, but the temps are running warm. Caribou's normal high and low for January 17th is 20° and 2°. For Portland, 32° and 15°. It appears at this point we could get into a below normal temperature pattern late in the month into early February. We'll see.

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- Mike

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