A nuisance snow that could bring slick spots
A look at the Sunday morning surface map shows the polar high to the southwest which will move east today, That will set up a southwest flow as a long wave warm front approaches the region to kick off the work week.
Outlook through Tuesday
As the polar high heads for the Atlantic, warm air moves in aloft and may touch off some flurries and squalls for the mountains and north Sunday. As warm air continues to build in ahead of the front, snow shower activity becomes more widespread overnight. The steadier snow falls Monday afternoon, which could turn the evening commute into a Body Shop Special. The deep cold of late will allow the snow to stick which will grease the roads up. The steadier snow turns back to snow showers by late evening Monday, and will linger into Tuesday.
It won't be much, but enough to have to get out and clean up for most of the state. The high end amounts are likely for northern and eastern areas away from the shorelines, along with the ski hills.
Warmer air arrives for late week
After a weak high takes over briefly on Wednesday, as that slides offshore, warmer air works in for the last half of the work week. Wednesday appears precipitation free until evening. As a warm front approaches from the southwest, it could bring a chance for a wintry mix of sleet and freezing drizzle or rain in the overnight as we head into Thursday.
While guidance has locked into warmer air taking control, I am throwing caution flags as to how the remainder of the week plays out. An "inside runner" is on the minds of models to impact the region Friday into Saturday, which could bring rain to the south and east and perhaps a wintry mix to areas of the mountains and north. Models and cold air have a rough time, so I am not willing to bank on the outcome of that just yet.
I will update as the week progresses.
5-Day Outlook page is updated through Friday.