The time to begin preparations is now The winter of 2023-24, as much of a bust as it was for snow, appears to go out with a big bang. The region has experienced several high-impact storms, and this one is shaping to be the cherry on top of the ice cream sundae. On this Day of The Fools, Old Man Winter is warming up in the bullpen, preparing to deliver the joke, which could be cruel. Please check your storm supplies. Ensure you have plenty of non-perishable foods, batteries, phone chargers, and gas for the generator. For most of the state, Thursday will likely be a snow day. Travel could be crippled or paralyzed over a large portion of the state. Expect schools, daycares, businesses, and municipal offices to close. Given the threat of widespread power outages, this may stretch into a four-day weekend, if not longer, in some areas. A long duration storm on the way Wednesday 2 AM (06z) to Sunday 8 PM (00z Monday) - Strong blocking to the northeast around Greenland and Labrador pipes the cold air in. While rain is likely the main precipitation type to start Wednesday afternoon over southwest areas, it may not stay that way for long. As the coastal low intensifies, it drags in the cold air low enough to bring the change to snow Wednesday night into Thursday. The ocean low becomes trapped by the upper-level ridging to the north, slows down, and hangs out over the Gulf of Maine through Friday before finally getting shoved out to sea on Saturday. For most areas, precipitation ends on Friday, but there could be snow showers for the north, east, and higher west elevations on Saturday. I know the eclipse is on the minds of many here. There is a fair chance that areas along the path of totality will have a shot at seeing it on Monday.  As mentioned in the Easter Sunday update, forecasting snowfall amounts for this one is daunting, given the time of year and the high sun angle, storm track, and intensity. The further away from the coast, the drier the snow, and the higher the ratio. The closer to the shorelines, the wetter and the pastier it becomes. We have a strong low-level jet that will factor into this as well, which will hammer the dendrites as they fall to the surface. A general 1-2”+ amount of liquid equivalent is involved here south of The County, with the higher amounts over the south and west being the general idea. Regarding bust potential, I would like to see more interest in other guidance ideas before I go all in on a 12-24” idea over the southwest interior. Still, as of early Monday morning, a foot of snow, as a basic idea, is a reasonable starting point. Banding and velocity are key to big snowfall amounts in April. The storm, expected to amp up Wednesday night, helps set the cold in place. While surface temperatures may be marginal, intense snowfall rates can easily override them, and that is what is expected here, given the dynamics.  The sum of ingredients in this pot of late-season winter stew has me very concerned about widespread power outages over the coastal plain. This may extend further north into the western foothills and mountains as time gets closer, pending the snow-to-water ratios that are still to be determined. This is a long-duration event with heavy, wet snow and potential wind gusts in the 30-45 mph range starting Wednesday night and going through Thursday night. There is potential for a 24-plus-hour window of wind speed concerns. Expect to lose power and prepare for it.  Given the track of the low into the Gulf of Maine, coastal flooding is likely. The high tide in the 7 AM hour Thursday morning may be the most problematic for southwestern areas. Note the idea of an easterly wave direction. This could push surges into vulnerable areas. Hampton Beach in New Hampshire, along with the North Shore and Boston Harbor, are sitting ducks in this scenario. Time will tell if the Thursday PM high tide will have issues, but given the fact that the surface low will be hanging around, there may be issues with that tide cycle as well. Stay tuned for updates. Prepare now.  Thank you to Allspeed Cyclery & Snow in Portland, Downeast Aerial Photography in Rockland, Dutch Elm Golf Club in Arundel, and Sunrise Property Services in Bridgton, for partnering with Pine Tree Weather. Special thanks to all the individuals and businesses who financially contribute. I sincerely appreciate your support. Always have MULTIPLE ways to receive weather alerts. Stay updated, stay on alert, and stay safe! - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. 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Mike Haggett
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