The plot thickens for Tuesday Guidance ideas have shifted with the overnight runs which has potentially changed the outcome with increased snowfall over the entire region, along with the potential for a coastal mix. This was an idea that models had a few days ago, subsequently bailed on it, and have come back to it. Why does this happen? Upper air sampling by radiosondes (weather balloons) does a much better job figuring out the short term when all the pieces involved are on the continent. So much of the long-term forecasting by models depends on satellite data when energy pieces are over the oceans. Satellite data does a fair job and ensemble ideas are wired to smell out the skunks, but consistency is key. When it comes to balloon data to work with, I think of that old Coca-Cola ad from back in the 1970’s, there isn’t anything like the real thing. I am a bit perturbed with myself that I fell asleep on this, but after two major systems, I lost focus on this one given the energy I put into those. I own it. Taking models as gospel is great way to be humbled and embarrassed, and I speak of that through experience. I've been burned on the cross so many times to the point I was ready to get out of forecasting. Not saying I did in this case, but I didn't dig into this as deep as I usually do. You folks need to understand that forecasts can change very quickly this time of the year, and you need to stay updated. This is another classic example. The second major storm the region faced last week is spinning around Hudson Bay. It will pivot, drop southwest, and drag upper-level energy to the east and fire up a storm offshore of southern New England.  Looking at the evolution of the upper-level energy at the steering level that runs through 1 AM Wednesday shows the pick-and-roll move of the upper-level low to north that is the key steering wheel for how this plays out. That pick-and-roll move is what is drawing the storm closer to the region as the ridge to the east tightens up due to the blocking to the north.  From a surface map point of view, you can see how the pick-and-roll move drags the energy across the country. It then taps into the moisture from the southwest, the storm fires up, and intensifies as it heads into the Gulf of Maine. With the sudden guidance jerk to the west in the evolution of the storm, red flags are flying all over the place in my mind. Will ideas continue to the west? Can the coastal plain expect more in the way of a junky mix? Wind will obviously be more of player, and how high do the speeds get? The idea for now... subject to change Tuesday 4 AM to Wednesday 4 AM (you can trust the time stamps for local time) - I am NOT sure if I trust this idea given the wrenches that guidance is throwing into it, but I'll go with it for now. This is -strictly- hourly snowfall here. For my neighbors in York County, chances are good we wake up with snow accumulating with slick spots to start off. Snow eventually overspreads the region during the morning (west, MidCoast) then north and east in the afternoon. Notice for coastal areas where the light blue changes to gray later in the day. That is the potential for the warm front to work in off the ocean. As we've seen recently. areas on the cold side of the front can expect snow to rip. On the warmer side comes the risk of a junky wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain, along with warm rain. While interior areas can expect an all snow event, and perhaps Portland southward, MidCoast and DownEast areas start as snow then see a mix to rain at the end.  I am not happy with this idea for the reasons I've mentioned, but it is fair given the data from the overnight runs. I can see MidCoast and DownEast shorelines bust on the low end. I can see western areas going higher. This is a fluffy snow for most, the exception will be where / if / when the coastal front moves in where it will get wetter. Expect slick driving as the snow that compacts will be like glass. School closings are potentially there, and that may cause daycares to close as well. As the storm develops and moves into the Gulf of Maine, wind speeds will pick up and cause blowing and drifting of snow for coastal areas on up into eastern Maine. Stay tuned. I've been up since 2 AM and now off to work Thank you to Allspeed Cyclery & Snow in Portland, Downeast Aerial Photography in Rockland, Dutch Elm Golf Club in Arundel, and Sunrise Property Services in Bridgton, for partnering with Pine Tree Weather. Special thanks to all the individuals who financially contribute. I sincerely appreciate your support. Always have MULTIPLE ways to receive weather alerts. Stay updated, stay on alert, and stay safe! - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the Who I Am page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! 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Mike Haggett
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