Monday September 11, 2023

9/11/2023

An interesting week ahead

While the main concern is what may potentially happen with Lee, and deservedly so, there are a couple of systems to deal with out ahead of it. Given the humid airmass that is meandering over the region due to the meandering frontal boundary, the risk of heavy rain with perhaps some localized flash flooding is on the discussion table for Monday, and again on Wednesday into Thursday. All of this while long wave swells from Lee arrive and begin to build along the coast. Folks with exposed shoreline property and/or boats should continue to prepare and monitor the forecast as the week progresses. For the rest of us, the main concern is for rain and what impacts that may bring pending on what Lee decides to do.

Showers and a couple rumbles possible
for the foothills and coastal plain Monday

Monday 6 AM to Tuesday 2 AM - Shower activity is expected to increase during the day over the interior during the morning. Coastal areas may deal with a few hit or miss showers early on but see rain chances increase in the afternoon. There could be a rumble of thunder to two mixed in, but the risk is low, and severe chances are very low given the cloud cover. Rainfall could be locally heavy in spots and may cause isolated flash flooding. Showers are expected to continue in the overnight hours into Tuesday.

Another wave of locally heavy rain midweek

Tuesday 2 AM to Thursday 8 PM - A weak area of low pressure offshore keeps the risk of showers in the forecast for Tuesday. Low pressure forms along the stalled boundary in a pseudo-inside runner form that tracks into Quebec and drags a wave of rain showers through the region Wednesday that could bring areas of heavy rain, and once again cause some localized flash flooding in spots. Pending on the timing of the frontal boundary passage with dictate if this ends as the model here suggests or slows down allowing rain to continue into Thursday.

The general idea of 1-3" is expected for rainfall totals through Thursday, with the western interior likely to have the best chance for 2" or more. With the ground saturated and with little dry time ahead of Lee's arrival it is especially concerning pending on the track.

Monday 5 AM update on Lee

I mentioned this on Facebook, and it is worth repeating that tropical systems grow in size as they head northward into the mid-latitudes and this one will as well. It's also worth repeating that the Saffir-Simpson scale of rating tropical systems based on wind speed of the eye only is great for scientific research and analysis but does not properly gauge overall storm impact potential of torrential flooding rainfall, severe storm potential, ocean surf, storm surge, and coastal flooding.

I am on record here that I do not care what the Saffir-Simpson rating for this storm will be at the time of arrival. My focus will be on impacts from ALL the ingredients, whether it be wind, rain, and the shoreline shenanigans that come along with the complete package.

Ensemble means are still locked in with hitting Nova Scotia on the nose, which puts Maine on the wetter side of the storm. With the storm expanding in size, which does increase the wind field, so the region will get some of that as well, just not as strong as on the east side.

As can be seen here, the individual ensemble members have a wide envelope of ideas. The progressiveness of the upper air pattern will dictate Lee's final approach and what it will deliver for impact to the region.

It would be wise to prepare for the worst to stay out ahead of it. I've said repeatedly over the years that models are like shady used car salesmen. The operational ideas that get spread on social media cannot be trusted.

Stay in touch with the National Hurricane Center for the latest information on Lee.

Don't buy into the hype or the fear. Prepare. Stay tuned.

Focus on potential impacts,
regardless of storm size or category

Be prepared for hurricanes by knowing how to understand forecasts. They can tell you a lot about what is expected, including the storm’s paths, rainfall amounts, wind speeds, and more. There is a lot of information available days ahead of a storm, and it is important to understand what it means. noaa.gov/understand-forecast-information

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Stay updated, stay on alert, and stay safe!

- Mike

NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you.

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