Quick hitting storm passes through Maine Saturday; multi-day event to start the week

1/2/2021

Banding to dictate snow amounts Saturday

Using hourly liquid equivalent projected rain totals to enhance the idea of banding potential. While I do not expect any widespread 1"/hour snowfall rates, it may happen in isolated areas. The storm ends from west to east this afternoon, and by 7 PM will be clear of the state, outside of any snow showers in the mountains.

No changes to my forecast idea for snow totals posted here on Friday. Higher elevations may see as much as 10", some banding may deliver around the same amount as well. For most of the state, this is a 4-8" event, with lesser amounts along the southwest coast and north.

As the storm moves east, a northwesterly wind picks up and gusts to around 25 mph in places and will diminish overnight into Sunday morning.

The sky clears out overnight, and brings a sunny start to Sunday. Clouds will be on the increase Sunday afternoon ahead of the storm on the way Monday.

Cut-off upper level low to hang around
through midweek

I am going to get right out in front of this and say that cut off upper level lows have a mind of their own and as a result, the confidence in forecast is low. This European model idea of vorticity and heights at 500mb (altimeter ~18,230 feet) shows the energy generated from temperature variables and how spread out and slow moving it is. This loop runs from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM Thursday. It shows the wobbles and injections of energy at the mid-level, all of which plays out on what happens at the surface, to a certain degree. Notice how one pocket of energy backs in to Maine Tuesday into early Wednesday... this is the type of set up where confidence is low, so the best course of processing is to take it a day at a time and see how this plays out.

Focusing here from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM Monday shows the ejection of the surface low off the DelMarVa peninsula and a northeast track close to benchmark 40°N / 70°W south of Nantucket. Coastal areas of Maine see the snow in this case. Folks in southwestern areas can expect a slick commute to work Monday morning. How far north the snow gets depends on the surface high and the ridge to the north.

For now, I do not expect much in the way of snowfall for the northern half of the state.

Banding and the position of the surface low will dictate what happens. Any deviations to the north/northwest (more precipitation) or south/southeast (less precipitation) will have impacts on the outcome given region is on the fringe of the storm.

From 7 PM Monday to 7 PM Wednesday, there is potential for the surface low to back in on the region. DownEast and central areas could get roughly a foot of snow out of this. Southwestern areas could see a similar outcome pending on the track, also. At the time of this update Saturday morning, it is too early to tell what will happen beyond Monday.

Alex will have a full update on this here at some point Sunday morning.

Winter Injuries and Fatalities

Slippery sidewalks and roads aren’t the only things to look out for in late winter and early spring snow storms. Shoveling snow can be a health risk as well. Remember to stay hydrated, take frequent breaks, and move only small amounts with each shovel pass. Learn more at weather.gov/winter

Temperature outlook through Friday

Temperatures continue to run above normal overall. I continue to wave the flag of caution that highs and lows may be a bit cooler pending on how the cut-off upper low and associated surface low scenario plays out.

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- Mike

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