Pine Tree Weather
  • DISCUSSIONS
  • DONATE
  • MAPS
  • NWS BRIEFINGS
  • SATRAD
  • MARINE
  • SNOW / ICE OUTLOOK
  • RAIN OUTLOOK
  • CPC OUTLOOK
  • Kennebunk
  • OBSERVING WEATHER
  • Who We Are
  • My Photography
  • DISCUSSIONS
  • DONATE
  • MAPS
  • NWS BRIEFINGS
  • SATRAD
  • MARINE
  • SNOW / ICE OUTLOOK
  • RAIN OUTLOOK
  • CPC OUTLOOK
  • Kennebunk
  • OBSERVING WEATHER
  • Who We Are
  • My Photography

Quiet and cool until midweek; potential NorEaster late week? Or not...

3/18/2019

Comments

 

Temperature roller coaster ride continues

Picture
A look at high temperature departure from normal forecast from the National Weather Service shows spring will arrive on schedule. The darker blues and greens indicate below normal, the oranges indicate above normal. This is the time of year where we get temperature whiplash at times. 

The region stays cool for Tuesday. After a well below normal cold Wednesday, temperatures rise to at or above normal. Temperatures stay slightly above on Thursday before they begin to fall Friday and then crash on Saturday. Sunday shows temperatures bouncing back above normal for the southern two thirds of the state to round out the weekend.

Many questions on late week potential storm

Picture
Spring officially begins on Wednesday astrologically. Models have been acting like it since March 1st, which is typical due to that being the start of meteorological spring. The European model here is indicating a potential NorEaster late week which could bring copious amounts of snow for the mountains and north, a potential for some mixing for the western foothills on up into southern Aroostook, and rain for the coast Friday, changing to snow everywhere Friday night before ending on Saturday. 

For those cheering for one more winter blast, or those who are D-O-N-E done with winter, read this out. 

Again, we are seeing a jump in this particular model idea from what it has been pitching through the weekend until this one run Monday morning. so we need to tread with skepticism.  I would like to see some sort of consistency before I take the bait. 

Digging under the hood a bit deeper...
Picture
For a storm only four days out, this is quite a spread on individual ensemble ideas. This is rather uncharacteristic, which ads to my skepticism.  
Picture
A look at the GFS model which has done a better job in the 4-7 day term shows a much different outcome. A NorEaster gets kicked out to sea by an approaching cold front. Along the frontal boundary is a rain and wet snow. The combination of the two combine and blows up a storm over the Canadian Maritimes and brings some scattered snow showers Friday into Saturday. 

For the record, this model idea has been consistent and mirrored the European model more or less until the separated Monday morning. 

The only thing models agree on beyond Wednesday is the wind is going to crank on Saturday, and it's likely to be a cold day. 

Regional outlook through Saturday... for now

Picture
This is my idea for now. I am definitely going to put asterisks on Thursday and Friday for now, but having seen this movie before in the past few weeks, I have reasonable confidence that this forecast will hold up. 

That said, we'll see what happens on Tuesday.

Welcome to spring... where forecasting weather is truly an art form, and not hinged on one specific model, a particular run or idea... and forecasts can change quickly. 

Stay tuned...

 ► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

► ► Your financial donations are much appreciated to keep this site funded and for further development. 

I sincerely appreciate your support not only financially, but also in sharing my efforts with others.

Always stay weather aware! 

​- Mike
Comments
    Picture

    Mike Haggett
    Kennebunk, ME

    Certified Weather
    Forecaster
    Penn State '21

    American Meteorological Society

    National Weather Association

    Weather-Ready Nation 
    Ambassador
    ​
    ​SKYWARN-CWOP

    Matthew 19:26


    Support
    Pine Tree Weather

    DONATE

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Archives

    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017

    RSS Feed

Proudly powered by Weebly