While it has been a soggy fall, half the state still running behind
Periodically I check to see where the state is at compared to normal for rainfall. Those of us that are dependent on ground water resources have struggled for the past few years. This hit close to home with me as it affected my family, and many of you messaged me about your problems, too.
Before the recent snow storms of late, the common question I received as I talked with people is how rainy this fall has been. That is absolutely true for most of us, as the greens and blues on the chart above indicate. Outside of areas along the Quebec border, most areas are running at a surplus.
It's a different story looking back over the past year. Areas in the browns and reds are below normal, and the pinks indicate well below normal. It's not a coincidence that it is people from the browns, reds and pinks messaged me quite often in the past year inquiring about rain potential and ground water issues. Those who have followed my weather musings for a number of years now know that I have been tracking this deficit for most of that time. Those that do read closely know this stealth drought has gone on much longer than this.
This is the past three years looking at rainfall departure. It has improved over New England, but there is still quite a bit of a deficit over much of the six-state region. Looking at all the facts, it would be wise for folks dependent on ground water to still think conservation as we head into winter. The region was in a deep hole with the water table, and there is still a ways to go before green, blues and purples will dominate the map.
Sunday repeats itself
While not exactly the same wash, rinse and repeat of last Sunday, it will have some similarities as far as timing goes. I know there are several of you who get my input on whether or not church services are to take place in your area. This going to be another one of those cases where it will be wait and see. The timing of this isn't good given the fact it appears to start over western areas overnight Saturday and will likely have impacts for the interior Sunday morning.
This is my idea of how I see this unfolding for now, subject to change. Important to note that all areas may see some flakes to start off. For the coast, it does not appear to last long. Interior areas in pink are likely to see snow, changing to freezing rain and then perhaps all rain Sunday afternoon. Far northern areas appear to see mostly snow before a period of icing and a change to rain. Only the far north may escape this with little icing.
A rough idea on snowfall appears to be in the 3-6" range before the changeover. Freezing rain is always a bit of a crap-shoot since all atmospheric dynamics have to be perfect for ice accretion to occur. One model idea has roughly 0.25"-0.40" as a possibility. That may be on the high end, but only time will tell. It's better to bet on accretion occurring than amount, and that threat is there.
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