Relatively quiet for Maine until Christmas Eve

12/21/2020

Best chance for sun in western areas Monday

If you are playing hooky and skiing today, it will be a good day for it. There could be some fog on the southern slopes, but the Rangeley / Sugarloaf region should be in good shape to start off. Fog may be persistent in areas, so be aware of that.

Most if not all areas get up above freezing for the day. Southwest and MidCoast shorelines have the best chance to break 40°.

DownEast areas may pick up some light snow
Monday Night

HRRR model idea of radar reflectivity from 3 PM Monday to 3 AM Tuesday

There is still some variance in ideas in track for this offshore storm passing to the southeast of the region Monday night into Tuesday. A majority of ideas indicate a close shave. If the track moves 30-60 miles to the northwest, that could bring an inch or two of snow to interior Washington County. Bangor may pick up a dusting in that scenario.

Precipitation ends by 1-2 AM regardless.

For Tuesday, similar in temperature, a bit more wind from the west, with a chance for snow showers in mountains as a Canadian High works into the region.

Wednesday appears cooler, but quiet as high pressure sets up for the day.

Storm remains on track to bring impacts for Christmas

GEM model idea of surface pressure and precipitation from 7 PM Wednesday to 7 PM Saturday

High pressure that brings fair conditions to the region passes east Wednesday night. A southwest flow develops. Far northern areas may get clipped with some snow showers heading into Thursday morning. Outflow rain showers ahead of the longwave frontal boundary could initiate Christmas Eve late morning or early afternoon. The main punch of this storm appears to happen overnight into Christmas Day.

European Ensemble idea for probability of wind gust speed greater than 50 knots from 7 PM Thursday to 1 AM Saturday

Wind and power outages is my first concern with this storm. The loop above shows the percentage chance of wind gust speeds exceeding 50 knots near the surface. Guidance is depicting a strong low level jet which could peak with wind gusts around 80 knots at 2,000 feet above the surface Christmas morning. Add the probability for downpours and thunderstorms into the mix, that sets up the scenario where the wind threat is not only horizontal, but vertical.

The National Weather Service is indicating the possibility of high wind concerns for the coastline and advisory level wind for interior areas.

As we have seen in storms like this in the recent past, a strong south/southeast flow sets up the idea of power outages. For those who live in areas where power frequently cuts out, you are on notice now to prepare for it to happen.

Ensembles are still on the idea of a 1½-2"+ idea for rainfall for most of the region, which remains a good base in amounts to get started with. Actual totals could be double that, especially in the mountains. This will be fine tuned as we get closer.

Localized flash flooding, urban street flooding, ponding of water on roadways, potential for hydroplaning, reduced visibility in areas of fog and heavy rain are all on the table Christmas Day.

As the front passes through late Friday, temperatures drop. All of this will freeze up heading into Saturday morning, and may freeze very quickly on the roads overnight.

Please support Pine Tree Weather

Outlook through Sunday

With the rain event for Christmas, a record high temperature could be broken for Caribou, and come close for Houlton and Millinocket. For those looking for the next snow chance of significance, there may be something in the works in the 8-10 day region.

Holiday power outages are not fun

Power outages are becoming more numerous and more impactful around Maine. With a holiday on the way, you may want to cook ahead and prepare for power loss.

For power loss preparation tips ready.gov/power-outages

Be prepared to receive alerts and stay updated!

BE PREPARED WITH A NOAA Weather Radio.

For $20-$40, it could provide important information to you when you need it. The weather bands are standard on most public safety scanners, and newer scanner models. Weather radios can be programmed for auto alert. Click here for more information.

► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine

For more information, please follow Pine Tree Weather on Facebook and Twitter.

** FUNDING NEEDED FOR 2021 **
Thank you for supporting this community based weather information source that is funded by your financial contributions.

Stay updated, stay on alert, and stay safe!

- Mike

Comments