The state is on the fringe
I'll be right up front here to say there is high bust and boom potential with this. The remnants of Ida is on track to develop into a wet NorEaster, which we know from winter experience can bring the chance for surprises.
As I mentioned on Tuesday, the influence of the upper low dropping down over eastern Quebec holds the cards on how this will play out. Less influence, less rain for the interior. More influence, more rain for the interior, and higher rain totals for the coast. In this prepared Weather Prediction Center idea is about as close to the happy medium there is between various operational and ensemble ideas.
A flood watch is in effect for York County. Time will tell if that area is expanded to include more counties. Coastal plain counties should stay on alert for changes.
A quiet Wednesday
Ahead of the arrival of what is left of Ida is a relatively calm. More sun to the north to start off, but by late afternoon the cloud cover makes it to the far north as warm air intrudes into the upper levels of the atmosphere. Most of the daylight hours stay dry.
Timing of rainfall and wind
Looking at 1-hour forecast rain totals from the 06z (2 AM) HRRR model run for timing purposes shows rain developing over southwestern Maine by 8 PM Wednesday evening and reaching far eastern areas by 3-4 AM. The morning commute Thursday is guaranteed to be a wet one for the coastal plain.
From 8 AM to 8 PM Thursday, steady rain ends over western and southern areas by roughly mid-morning, early afternoon for Bangor, and late afternoon for eastern areas.
The wind factor through the period shows the higher wind gusts east of Penobscot Bay where northeasterly winds could reach into the 30-35 mph range. The storm is on track to intensify as it heads into the Canadian Maritimes. Wind over DownEast areas diminish heading into early Friday.
Outlook for Labor Day Weekend
One Ida's remnants clear out, high pressure works in behind it and controls the pattern Friday and Saturday. Starting Sunday, ridging from the south noses northeastward, and brings the chance for a late day shower / thunderstorm on Sunday. Showers with a chance of a storm continue overnight into Monday. Humidity levels rise bringing sticky dew points to wrap up the holiday weekend, and potentially unsettled conditions.
While the tail end of the weekend appears humid, temperatures are expected to run below normal overall for most areas through the period.
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