Watches posted This storm is shaping up to be a mess. One thing that has not been issued yet are coastal flood statements, and those will come when the window opens. For those not under a flood watch in northern and eastern areas should stay tuned. A sloppy wet smacker A look here at precipitable water shows the set up. Trough over the region early Saturday gets shoved out, a strong ridge surges in from the southwest into Sunday, with a deep trough driving the ridge out on Monday. There is plenty of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico with this system. Fortunately, it will be a quick mover. Temperatures climb into Sunday then crash on Monday Loop here of temperatures from 7 PM Sunday to 7 AM Tuesday shows the roller coaster ride. All areas climb above freezing to clean up whatever snow may be on trees. There could be some areas of fog, which could be locally dense, which will ripen snow. All of this happens before the wind arrives in the wee hours of Monday. As the front passes through on Monday, temperatures fall quickly behind it. With the amount of precipitation on the way, there are likely to be a freeze up of puddles and standing water, which creates black ice potential heading into Tuesday. The wind chill Tuesday morning is likely to provide the final slap in the face from this storm. Expected apparent temperatures a few degrees +/- 0° in the mountains and teens for the coast. Precipitation and wind Sunday 7 AM to Monday 7 PM - Sunday appears to start off mainly dry. Showers may flare up over the mountains in the morning, and expand into the rest of the region in the afternoon. Areas of light to moderate rainfall and areas of patchy drizzle and fog is the theme into Sunday night. As low pressure intensifies on the frontal boundary, areas of moderate to heavy rain form Monday morning as the low-level jet arrives. As the front sweeps through, precipitation ends from west to east in the afternoon and is over for most areas by Monday evening. A general 1-3" of rain is expected statewide. There is some uncertainty about how dynamic cooling may play a role in a change over to a mix/snow in the western mountains. There are ideas out there where it could happen in time for some accumulation of pasty wet snow, and may be enough for power outage concerns. Folks in those areas should stay tuned on that.  Sunday 7 AM to Monday 7 PM - This is a loop of the low-level jet at roughly 2,000 feet. This highlights the areas under a high wind watch well. Speeds of 70-90 knots (80-100 mph) have been the consistent theme. That translates into potential for 50-70 mph wind gusts at the surface. The model trend here over the past couple of days has been a bit more to the east. If this idea holds serve, this may shorten the threat for wind damage over the west and south. MidCoast and DownEast areas are likely to get hit the hardest, with the brunt coming in ahead of the front during the morning on Monday. By early afternoon, the threat drops over eastern areas. A northwest wind flow develops on the back side which brings the cold air in with gusts in the 20-30 mph range through the rest of the day and into Tuesday. Shoreline areas to be impacted, especially DownEast The idea of a shoreline battering continues. With the timing of the strong wind gusts moved ahead a bit, that may help to minimize impacts somewhat over the southwest coast. MidCoast and DownEast areas see the higher surf and the most impacts. With the Monday morning high tide running 1-1½ feet above normal with the astronomical influence along with the surf, there is shoreline flood potential. Stay tuned for more fine tuning of the forecast. Please make my 2 AM wake up calls worth it |
Mike Haggett
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