Kitchen sink storm on the way The transition from winter to spring is typically a bumpy ride. This storm is one of the bumps. The shorelines will get hit again. The wind is expected to crank. Heavy, wet snow for the interior. A power outage risk up and down the coast and for the interior where snow sticks to everything. There are several angles where flooding may take place. The only thing missing from this storm is the widespread presence of junk, but this will be trashy enough. On the scale of kitchen sink storms, this could be a nasty one. Today is the day to errands done. Sunday will be a day to hunker down, and avoid travel, if possible. A messy Sunday on the way Saturday 7 PM (00z Sunday) to Monday 2 AM (06z) – Precipitation gets going Saturday evening into early Sunday. As the intensifying low enters the region, rainfall and/or snowfall rates and wind increase. Where the precipitation is snow, it will paste like glue. Where it rains, it could dump. The surface low is expected to stall out by midday over the region, it will have reached past the point of maturity to allow a dry slot to work in, which will turn off the faucet over western and southern areas, and knock the wind down. While the mountains and north start as snow, those areas may end with a bit of rain as a parting gift. With the upper low overhead, it will be cut off for a time, allowing precipitation to continue as rain or snow showers into Monday and ending Monday night. Strong wind expected for the mountains and shorelines The storm is predicted to intensify a bit stronger, and the track is heading into the central part of the state, so the wind idea has increased. As of early Saturday morning, a high wind watch has been posted up and down the coast. As you can see from the map I’ve generated, there could be strong gusts inland as well. The National Weather Service could issue a wind advisory away from the shorelines later in the day. The timing of the high-end wind for western and southern areas is in the morning. For the east and north, mid-morning to mid-afternoon. When the heavy precipitation shuts off, the strong wind speeds drop with it. Be aware that downdraft wind damage is possible in areas where precipitation falls rapidly. This makes it both a horizontal and vertical threat. Multi-faceted flooding threat Many rivers around the state are running at their highest point, given the recent rains, snowmelt, and ice jams in the north. The main flooding threat in the interior is in southwestern areas. There is a risk of heavy downpours, which could cause flash flooding, along with brooks and streams filling up quickly. The small-stem and large-stem rivers need to be watched, too. There is potential for elevated flooding for rivers that empty into the ocean, with the storm surge pushing seawater into them while fresh water is looking for a way out. This could be problematic in the home office region, with the Kennebunk and Mousam Rivers and the lowlands in Wells, Ogunquit, and York.  The position of the surface low in the area, which could surge water for a longer period, adds potential insult to injury in this scenario. This 16z Sunday (Noon) idea of the STOFS surge model based on the GFS model shows the low around Sebago Lake. The pressure gradient force of the low and its position will dictate whether the inundated areas will be allowed to drain out as the tide flips or whether it may hang on longer. For those homes and businesses in low-lying areas along the shorelines, this is concerning, and something to keep in mind as you prepare for this storm.  The forecast tide for Portland is in the running to make the top six all-time historic crests, following the storms from January. With forecast seas in the 9-14’ range, what sand dunes are left that have not been rehabilitated from the shoreline obliterator storms from earlier in the year will likely take another pounding with this storm and erode more. While the idea is for “moderate” flood potential along the shorelines from Rockland to New Hampshire, that term is subjective at this point. Given all of the damage experienced in January, it could lead to “major” impacts in the most vulnerable areas where shoreline defenses have been eliminated. The threat isn’t as bad for DownEast areas, but again, that depends on what defense from high surf remains. While the idea is for “minor” flood potential, there could be areas where it could be worse. Using the second January storm as a benchmark, for those who have homes or businesses, please ask yourself this question: is your property fully prepared for a similar scenario? Are you safe staying in your home? Do you risk being cut off due to inundation for an extended period, and can you sustain that? Preparing your property and relocating to a safe place inland may be a wise decision. Slight adjustment to snow potential A winter storm watch is posted over Oxford, Franklin, and Somerset counties. The bottom line here is this is heavy, wet slop. The only area that I can see that may escape a total pasting is the Allagash region, and even there it will likely be somewhat damp of a snow. This is elevation-dependent, which brings hope for the taller ski hills to recover some of the losses. As I mentioned in Friday’s update, keep your expectations guarded. Snowfall rates could be intense over western areas Sunday morning in the 1-2” hour range. This is a plowing nightmare for those with dirt driveways due to the soft ground conditions with the recent rains and thaw. My suggestion is to move what you must, and let Mother Nature do the rest of the clean up for you as temperatures are expected to be mild in the week ahead. Stay updated with the PTW Weather Wall. Check out PTW for information 24 hours a day Thank you to Allspeed Cyclery & Snow in Portland, Downeast Aerial Photography in Rockland, Dutch Elm Golf Club in Arundel, and Sunrise Property Services in Bridgton, for partnering with Pine Tree Weather. Special thanks to all the individuals and businesses who financially contribute. I sincerely appreciate your support. Always have MULTIPLE ways to receive weather alerts. Stay updated, stay on alert, and stay safe! - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the PTW IN MEDIA page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
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