All the pieces come together The low-level water vapor image from early Saturday morning shows all the players on the field which will be moving along at good clip through Sunday afternoon. A flood watch is in effect for central, eastern, and northern areas. A wind advisory is in effect for the east and the north. A high surf advisory is posted for the entire coastline, but only some minor splash-over is possible with the tides astronomically low. The buzzword all week with this set up has been "dynamic". Anytime there is a trough going sharply negative it is always interesting. given rapid intensification of low pressure. With tropical remnants feeding into it, that raises concern for flooding and wind. With this set up, it will bring a lot of rain in a very short time, and it comes at night. Buckle up, eastern Maine Saturday 2 PM to Sunday 2 PM - This loop of rainfall estimates from the Weather Prediction Center is for the six hours previous at the step point. The rainfall during the day is negotiable, just enough to be annoying for those with outdoor activities and the southeast wind off the ocean keeps the dew points up. The fire hose comes into the state Saturday night between 8 PM and 2 AM Sunday. A general 2-4"+ of rainfall is expected in a six-hour span as the remnants of Philippe spin through. Rainfall rates will be intense. There could be some claps of thunder mixed in, but nothing in the way of severe, other than sheets of rain. This is where the greatest potential for flooding comes in, whether brooks, streams, ditches, roads, urban streets, and/or basements. Important to note here, there still could be a westward shift in the heavy rainfall. Folks in Franklin, Androscoggin, and Sagadahoc County should take note. You may see a flood watch and or warnings come out of this yet. Also, I noted the dry slot on the water vapor graphic at the onset. That plays a factor in this as well. If that works deeper, that could shove the rain totals further east. If it doesn't work in as far, that brings the chance for rain totals to shift west.  Folks in the Penobscot Bay / Bangor area on up through Baxter appear in the jackpot region for rain totals, but again that could shift west or east pending on how it all comes together.  This is Sou'Easter event for wind direction. This isn't anything like the Halloween Horror storm from back in 2017, but it appears likely to produce some power outages. Where the torrential rain falls comes the greater threat for vertical, downdraft wind potential. The DownEast shorelines have the best chance for 50+ mph gusts. A shift of heavy rain to the west brings the threat for wind west along with it. The blow dryer comes out on Sunday as a northwest wind drives in as all the pieces come together over western Quebec. Gusts in the 20-35 mph range are expected through the day, settling down somewhat heading into Sunday night. Next chance for rain comes Tuesday into Wednesday as the upper low forming out of all of this sits, spins, and drifts from being cut-off and blocked. There are ideas floating around with another storm on the way potentially for next weekend. Ah, October. I need your help to keep PTW going Thank you for your years of readership and for your financial support. It is because of you that this operation continues. Stay updated, stay on alert, and stay safe! - Mike NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
|
