Showers and storms Sunday, wet Monday south

9/4/2022

Frontal boundary advances Sunday

I hope everyone is enjoying the weekend thus far. For those working, I thank you for your service. There is plenty of work going on in the atmosphere around us. Danielle is holding up well, located to the southeast of Newfoundland. High pressure that brought a fantastic day on Saturday has slid to the southeast. A southwest flow develops over the region for Sunday which bumps dew point levels up. A frontal boundary passes through the region and is set to stall to the south for Labor Day and keeps rain in the forecast for southern areas through Tuesday.

Sunday 9 AM to Monday Midnight - No real changes in thinking I posted here on Saturday about the timing and impacts with the frontal approach. Northern areas have the best chance for an isolated shower through early afternoon, then the coastal plain has its chance Sunday afternoon into the evening. The best chance for thunder is for the western foothills - Waterville - Waldo County south and may interrupt the evening outdoor grilling plans. Storms could produce some gusty wind and a quick downpour. Showers and storms are of the potluck variety and not all areas get wet.

The tale of the day involves the front and will change as the front passes through. The wind will shift from the southwest to the north and could be a bit gusty this afternoon in spots. As the front gets closer to the coastal plain in the afternoon, dew point levels rise and could be on sticky side especially for southwestern areas until the front passes through Sunday night.

Best rain chances are for southwestern areas
through Tuesday

Monday Midnight to Noon - For those with outdoor plans Monday morning for southwestern areas, plan to get it done early. For those traveling to Southern New England, get on the road as early as possible

Monday Noon to Tuesday Midnight - Rain picks up in velocity and frequency Monday afternoon over southwest and MidCoast areas as disturbances ride along the stalled front to the south. A washout afternoon for Fryeburg to Rockland south appears likely, with scattered showers from Rangeley to Bangor to Eastport.

My suspicion that the front may dip a bit further south than model ideas were thinking that were expressed here in Saturday's post may end up that way. The trend to this point continues to move south. York County makes out the best as a region. Some localized areas of 2-3"+ are possible where training of heavy showers occurs, with the best chance for that also for York County but could also occur as far north as Fryeburg - Rockland.

Temperature outlook through Friday

After this round of rain passes through, it appears to be a mainly dry rest of the week with temperatures on the rise. The next widespread rain event is not clear as of now.

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NEXT UPDATE: MONDAY

Stay updated, stay on alert, and stay safe!

- Mike

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