Southwest interior areas have the best chance for thunder
A strong cold front is on track to pass through the region Wednesday. An upper-low pinwheels overhead for Thursday and Friday, which may bring the risk of a shower over the north and mountains. The cold pool associated with the upper-low may bring the risk of frost for the mountains, north and western foothills Thursday night into Friday morning. The upper-low clears out in time for Saturday. Surface high pressure sets up shop to the southeast and delivers warmer temperatures for the weekend.
Wednesday 8 AM to Thursday 8 AM - Timing of the approach of the front appears on track. Isolated showers are possible over western and northern areas Wednesday morning. As the front makes its approach, showers become more widespread heading into the afternoon.
The best chance for thunder appears to be over the southwest interior where areas are sheltered from the cooling south breeze from the ocean (Fryeburg, Rumford, Lewiston). I can't rule out the potential for a severe storm, although the dynamics are better for New Hampshire. Thunderstorms could contain heavy rain, gusty wind, and some small hail.
Showers end from northwest to southeast Wednesday evening into Thursday morning.
Just a slight tweak to the forecast rain idea. over southwestern areas thinking that decaying thunderstorms may bring a bit more juice. The DownEast coast may not get a whole lot out of this. As I stated in Tuesday's post, this is it for rain for a while, outside of a pop-up shower over the mountains and north as times as upper-level waves pass through.
Outlook through Memorial Day Weekend
Wednesday 8 PM through Memorial Day - The upper-low spins overhead through the region and keeps varying amounts of clouds and a light shower chance in spots through Friday. An upper-level ridge sets up a block by Saturday and steers away precipitation chances to the south and northeast. Northern areas may see a pop-up shower on Monday as an upper low passing through Labrador drops a backdoor cold front into The County.
FROST CHANCES: Folks in the Rangeley area may see some patch frost or freeze in spots Wednesday night into Thursday morning. For those in the Allagash, western mountains and the foothills, patchy frost is possible Thursday night into Friday morning.
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