Pine Tree Weather
  • DISCUSSIONS
  • DONATE
  • WEATHER WALL
  • MAPS
  • RAIN OUTLOOK
  • SEVERE
  • MARINE
  • CPC OUTLOOK
  • Kennebunk
  • MY BIO
  • PTW IN MEDIA
  • OBSERVING WEATHER
  • INTERNSHIPS
  • INTERN ALUMNI
  • DISCUSSIONS
  • DONATE
  • WEATHER WALL
  • MAPS
  • RAIN OUTLOOK
  • SEVERE
  • MARINE
  • CPC OUTLOOK
  • Kennebunk
  • MY BIO
  • PTW IN MEDIA
  • OBSERVING WEATHER
  • INTERNSHIPS
  • INTERN ALUMNI

Snow showers for the north Monday; forecast uncertainty late week

11/21/2022

Comments

 
The confidence on the forecast through Thanksgiving is good with no major impacts to be concerned with for the state. How Black Friday and the rest of the weekend plays out is still to be determined with a wide variance of ensemble model solutions that I will touch on.

Warm front advances north, cold front passes overnight

Picture
Monday Noon to Tuesday 6 AM - Clouds increase over the region as a warm front noses to the north and a cold front passes through overnight.  Snow showers are possible along the Quebec border region on up into the rooftop of the state during the afternoon into the night.  Snow squall potential is possible over the western mountains and foothills in the wee hours of Tuesday morning. 
Picture
Well below normal high temperatures are on tap again with a wind chill that makes feel around 10° cooler than that.  Expect the wind to shift to the northwest in the wee hours of Tuesday and expect another bitter cold start.

Tuesday appears to be mainly void of precipitation chances and sees the morning arctic breeze diminish and bring slightly warmer temperatures in for the day, but still seasonably cool. 

A zonal flow sets up and brings a weak disturbance in for Wednesday which brings the risk of snow showers for the mountains and north. 

Thanksgiving appears to be mainly sunny and cool as high pressure controls the day. 

Late week storms ideas scattered

It's kind of bizarre to see such a wide spread of forecast ideas in the day 5 outlook, but to prove the point that the outlook from Black Friday onward is a bit of a toss-up, I present the ideas that are on the table by the big three ensemble ideas that I rely on to formulate an outlook. 
Picture
The GFS ensemble idea is about the least interested of anything significant of the three. An upper-low over Texas cuts off the influence of the southern jet, thus cuts off a moisture stream to the northeast. The end result is flurries and snow showers for the north, a bit of a breeze, and not much else. 
Picture
The Canadian ensemble idea has the upper low elongated and digs to the south enough to pick up Gulf moisture, but the phasing of the north and south streams occurs late, allowing for moisture to stay suppressed to the south. An ocean storm forms well to the southeast away from the area. The end result is similar to the GFS and that is snow showers and flurries for the north and not much else. 
Picture
The European ensemble idea does not have the upper-low idea, but instead has a digging trough over the Midwest that allows upper-level flow to dig south to pick up Gulf moisture and transport it to the northeast. This is a stormier solution, and one that could bring some impacts. 
Picture
Taking it a step further and looking at individual ensemble ideas, one can easily see how widespread the solutions are. Roughly 60% of the European ensemble ideas favor a wetter outcome, whether that be an all-rain event or a heavy wet snow for the mountains and north with rain for the coastal plain with perhaps some mixing over the foothills.  

It's a fair bet that the area will get some sort of a storm out of this, but given the spread of ideas, there is not enough confidence to get into over impacts, precipitation type and specifics. For those traveling, it would be wise to plan some storm activity Friday and Saturday for now, with the outcome to be determined.  

Stay tuned! 

Funding for 2023 is currently at 35%...

Picture

Temperature outlook through Saturday

Picture
Thank you as always for your support!

Stay updated, stay on alert, and stay safe!

- Mike

​NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you

Comments
    Picture

    Mike Haggett
    Kennebunk, ME

    Weather-Ready Nation
    Ambassador

    Certified Weather
    Forecaster
    Penn State '21

    American Meteorological Society

    National Weather Association
    ​
    ​SKYWARN-CWOP

    Matthew 19:26



    DONATE

    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture
    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture


    Archives

    May 2025
    April 2025
    March 2025
    February 2025
    January 2025
    December 2024
    November 2024
    October 2024
    September 2024
    August 2024
    July 2024
    June 2024
    May 2024
    April 2024
    March 2024
    February 2024
    January 2024
    December 2023
    November 2023
    October 2023
    September 2023
    August 2023
    July 2023
    June 2023
    May 2023
    April 2023
    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017

Proudly powered by Weebly