Pine Tree Weather
  • DISCUSSIONS
  • DONATE
  • MAPS
  • NWS BRIEFINGS
  • SATRAD
  • MARINE
  • SNOW / ICE OUTLOOK
  • RAIN OUTLOOK
  • CPC OUTLOOK
  • Kennebunk
  • OBSERVING WEATHER
  • Who We Are
  • My Photography
  • DISCUSSIONS
  • DONATE
  • MAPS
  • NWS BRIEFINGS
  • SATRAD
  • MARINE
  • SNOW / ICE OUTLOOK
  • RAIN OUTLOOK
  • CPC OUTLOOK
  • Kennebunk
  • OBSERVING WEATHER
  • Who We Are
  • My Photography

Snow squall potential for Friday; wind chill arrives Saturday

1/22/2021

Comments

 

Be on alert for surprise snow

A preface here: there is a lot going on in the atmosphere over the region Friday. Snow shower activity this morning is being caused by a warm front nosing in from the southwest. There will be a pause in precipitation before a cold front approaches in the afternoon. There is also an upper level trough working into the region. The axis thereof will influence snowfall amounts for Saturday. While all of this is going on, an ocean storm forms well to the southeast, but sets up an inverted trough scenario as the axis of the upper level trough passes through, which could enhance snowfall along the coast.

The bottom line here is the potential for surprise snowfall with quick accumulations through Saturday. 

Picture
The HRRR here looks at the convective side of the situation. While the term "convection" is associated more for thunderstorms, it is also apart of winter weather, and in this case the risk of snow squalls. Cold air advection steepens the temperature lapse rates and with moisture combines to set up strong gusty winds, spurts of heavy snowfall, which leads to whiteout conditions and slick roads. 

The main threat for these squalls appear to be in the afternoon into mid-evening for southern areas. An inverted trough sets up and passes through the region overnight into Saturday, which could bring areas of squalls and shots of heavy snow through early afternoon. The HRRR shown here shows the potential for all of this well.

Not shown with this model is the upslope snow showers for the mountains which could bring several inches of accumulation there through Saturday as well. 
Picture
Where the squalls pass is where the accumulation comes south and east of the high country. The idea of an inverted trough has me thinking there could be a surprise couple of inches or more of snow from Portland to Eastport through Saturday afternoon. 

While all of this is going on, the wind comes in.

It will feel like January Saturday night into Sunday

Picture
With the upper level trough and associated surface high working in behind a rapidly intensifying storm tracking to Newfoundland, arctic air pours into the region Saturday night into Sunday. Folks in the mountains could see a wind chill advisory posted. Sunday appears to be bitterly cold with the wind. As the high moves in and the storm moves well northeast, the icy breeze settles down Sunday night.

Potential storm early next week
​continues to track south

Picture
I will say this. I was right about a storm in this window, but my hunch that it would affect the region appears to turn out wrong. I am not at the point where I can rule out the southwest and MidCoast shorelines getting brushed by it, but it maybe just a cloudy breeze as dry air may inhibit any snowfall. This is more of a Mid-Atlantic / southern New England storm. Ensemble ideas are south of the benchmark "B", which takes interior areas out of the picture for now. 
Picture
For ski country, after the upslope snows pass Saturday, there is a slight chance for more snow showers toward the middle part of the week from a clipper system. Ensemble noise begins to increase toward the second half of next weekend. Time will tell if anything comes out of that. 

Looks like next week will generally be void of precipitation with high temperatures close to seasonal average, with overnight lows running 5-10° warm. 

Snow squalls and Wireless Emergency Alerts

Picture
​Snow squalls are intense bursts of snow and wind with whiteout visibility that are extremely dangerous, especially while on the road. The National Weather Service helps you be ready by issuing Snow Squall Warnings that can trigger a Wireless Emergency Alert on your phone. If you receive one, know that a snow squall is occurring or imminent, and slow down or delay travel. weather.gov/safety/winter-snow-squall

Temperature outlook through Thursday

Picture
Picture
Picture
Picture
Picture

​Be prepared to receive alerts and stay updated!

Picture
​​BE PREPARED WITH A NOAA Weather Radio.

​For $20-$40, it could provide important information to you when you need it. The weather bands are standard on most public safety scanners, and newer scanner models. Weather radios can be programmed for auto alert.  Click here for more information.

​► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine
Picture

For more information in between posts,
​please follow Pine Tree Weather on 
Facebook and Twitter. 

​Thank you for supporting this community based weather information source operates by  financial contributions. 

Stay updated, stay on alert, and stay safe!

Thank you as always for your support! 

​- Mike
Comments
    Picture

    Mike Haggett
    Kennebunk, ME

    Certified Weather
    Forecaster
    Penn State '21

    American Meteorological Society

    National Weather Association

    Weather-Ready Nation 
    Ambassador
    ​
    ​SKYWARN-CWOP

    Matthew 19:26


    Support
    Pine Tree Weather

    DONATE

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Picture

    Archives

    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    July 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017

    RSS Feed

Proudly powered by Weebly