Storm post mortem, light snow Sunday night, potential for an ugly Christmas

12/19/2020

Calling myself out on this past storm

When storms blow up like this one did, it takes me a day or two to pause and reflect on what happened. This forecaster knew better. Sometimes when I know in my gut that storms could get out of hand, I keep myself in a box and conform with what others were thinking.

My mindset was this: I knew this storm was going to over perform. The tricky part is figuring where the snow band (or bands) would set up and for how long. This is where the conservative ideas have to kick in.

I knew at this point on Tuesday that this could have been a smoker of an event. I tweeted it out. If you look at this liquid equivalent chart here, do some math at 13-15:1, you more or less get the results from the storm we saw. The only question remained was if the low level wind was going to damage the snow flakes before reaching the surface, thereby making them smaller thus reducing the totals.

I knew York County was going to get lit up, I knew the gradient was going to be sharp, as this idea indicated. I knew the wind was going to be a factor. Timing and duration stayed on cue. Much of my forecast did verify in that regard. At the end of the day, I was a bit too timid to jump on higher totals, when I absolutely should have.

Lesson learned.

I am going to go rouge when I have that feeling again, and if I ruffle some feathers by others in the process, so be it. This should not have been as much of a surprise that it turned into. Bottom line.

Integrity first.

A quiet Saturday

Still a bit on the cooler side of normal for this time of the year. The temps appear to struggle to get to freezing along the coast. Wind will be light. Get out and enjoy the snow. Much of it may be gone by this time next week.

Light snow on the way Sunday night

NAM model idea for potential 1 hour liquid equivalent precipitation from 1 PM Sunday to 7 AM Monday

High pressure slides east Saturday night, warmer air moves in aloft, which will increase clouds as we venture into Sunday. Liquid equivalent hourly forecast above shows light amounts of mainly frozen precipitation pass through the region Sunday night.

By Monday morning, upwards of an inch of fluff is possible for most areas. DownEast areas may see a touch of ice out of this from light freezing drizzle.

Snow showers for some Tuesday

European model idea of precipitation and surface pressure from 10 AM Monday to 7 PM Wednesday

The last few days have been interesting to watch the ideas around the frontal boundary along the coast. It does not appear that anything is going to fire up along it that would affect our region. A weak low pressure system passes to the west, and upper level trough slides through the region which may bring some light snow showers for the interior and/or light rain showers for the southwest coast for Tuesday.

Behind that, high pressure settles in to bring a calm Wednesday

Potential for an ugly Christmas

European model idea for precipitation and surface pressure from 10 PM Wednesday to 7 PM Saturday

There is still time for changes in ideas here, but the consensus at this point is for a wet Christmas. There is also potential for gusty south/southeasterly wind which will need to be monitored for potential power outages.

There is also potential for at least some urban street flooding from melting snow and run off from this event. The snowpack may absorb a good portion of the rain, where there are deeper amounts. Where there is less snow, the streams and rivers will need to be monitored for flooding as well.

After this front passes through, all of this will freeze up as we head into the weekend.

Stay tuned for updates on this, and pray for a Christmas miracle that the impacts are less than the ideas being presented for now.

Temperature outlook through Christmas

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- Mike

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