Storm to bring a wintry mix to parts of Maine

Ski country gets a kickstart

Confidence is increasing for a solid snow event for the western mountains on up into Northern Aroostook. Guidance has warmed up somewhat for coastal and interior areas around the western foothills on over to interior DownEast areas. These forecasts are always tricky and present bust potential. It all depends on the position of the frontal boundary, low pressure along that front, and how much warm air pushes over the interior will dictate how this plays out.

The four precipitation type food groups

Like many early season wintry events, this one appears to feature the "warm air nose". Everything starts frozen in the upper atmosphere. What form it appears depends on where the warm air is as precipitation falls toward the surface. 

My concern remains that cold air damming may throw a wrench into all of this before all is said and done. The history of forecast guidance versus cold air at the surface is a well documented failure. For those away from the shorelines, be aware of this 

Monday and Tuesday event for most areas

A cold front passes through the region Sunday night, then stalls to the southeast Monday morning. Moisture rides up along the front from the southwest. Low pressure forms along the frontal boundary, and brings areas of snow, a light mix, and/or rain pending on location, which becomes more widespread Monday night and continues into Tuesday. Precipitation ends for most areas from west to east Tuesday evening. Snow showers continue for the north country into Wednesday.

There are still time for changes with this, but I feel good about this idea as of Sunday evening. I will make adjustments if necessary as the event evolves. 

I do not expect icing to be a big issue for this one for now, outside of the hazard of slick spots on bare surfaces. Unless there is a drastic change to the forecast, I don't suspect power outages will be a concern from ice related issues, although the wind may cause a few spotty outages. 

Expect slow travel Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening. Coastal areas should be on alert that roads could get icy as rain changes to snow. 

The mountain snow machine continues into Wednesday;
bitter cold wind chill for all

After the front passes, west-northwest wind will increase and bring a January chill to the region Wednesday. Coupled with some strong upper level energy, this sets up the potential for upslope snows which will add to the totals for Monday and Tuesday. This is why I think the elevated ski hills have the potential to reach the 8-14" level by the time this is over. 

The wind begins to pick up Tuesday afternoon as low pressure heads into the Canadian Maritimes. Tuesday night into Wednesday will be breezy with gusts 15-30 mph possible (40+ higher elevations) and that will drag down bitter cold arctic air from the north. The wind begins to settle Wednesday afternoon as high pressure settles in. 

With the fresh snow pack, expect overnight low temperatures to be in the single digits and teens for Thursday morning. Temperatures will remain well below normal into next weekend. 

It will be a bitter start with the breeze Wednesday morning. Expect wind chill values in the single digits and teens at best everywhere during the day. 

Stay updated! 

► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

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​- Mike