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Summer conditions for the week ahead

7/17/2022

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Ready or not, here it comes

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From under the pier at Old Orchard Beach, my photo
The heat and humidity have held off through the first month of summer around Maine, but that pattern is about to change. While the warmth does not appear to be excessive, the moisture in the air appears to ebb and flow between muggy and soupy for all areas starting Monday and going through Thursday. In this pattern, the chances for showers and thunderstorms increase given the instability provided by the humid air. It will be an eye-to-the-sky week as strong to severe storms are possible Monday and Tuesday, then again on Thursday. It will be important to stay on alert, have multiple ways to receive alerts, and stay updated on the forecast for timing and potential impacts. 

A slight chance of a pop-up shower Sunday

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This is an interesting set up for the day as the ocean breeze helps to raise dew points which sets up a boundary with the dry air over the interior. This creates instability and brings the chance for a pop-up shower and/or thunderstorm for the coastal plain in the afternoon into the early evening. Storms appear to be the pulse variety, which would bring a quick dump of rain with some wind and then fizzle out. It may dampen any outdoor dinner plans, so be aware and have a Plan B if necessary, just in case. 

For those heading for the ocean beaches, expect space availability to become cramped as the high tide arrives mid-afternoon. 

Much needed rain on the way Monday into Tuesday

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Monday 9 AM to Tuesday 2 AM - Several things going here. First, dew points are likely to surge as upper-level ridging pushes the initial wave into the region and ushers in a tropical feel. With the potential for rain also comes the threat of storms, which could be strong to severe. Storms could bring tropical downpours which could cause localized flash flooding and damaging wind. Guidance is hinting that there could be enough spin in the atmosphere for isolated tornadoes. On top of that, there could be a mesoscale convective system that could develop and continue showers and storms through Monday night and into Tuesday. I can't rule out the potential for nocturnal severe storm potential, which is a rarity in this part of the planet. Stay tuned for updates on this. 

Fingers crossed and prayers sent up that the state gets a good soaking from this to help with the drought conditions. Ideas range from ½-1" with locally heavier amounts as the general rule. 

A cold front approaches Thursday to bring
​temporary relief from humidity

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Thursday 2 AM to Friday 2 PM - A cold front is expected to pass through the region on Thursday and brings the next widespread chance for showers and strong to severe storms. Guidance is hinting at dew points reaching the 70s ahead of this front which would reach air-you-can-wear levels. It's a bit early for finer details here, but it is something to stay updated on. The aftermath is a day with more comfortable humidity levels, but that appears to be temporary as dew points rise back up over the weekend.

​Ah, summer! 

Temperature outlook through Friday

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Stay updated, stay on alert, and stay safe!

NEXT UPDATE: MONDAY


- Mike

​NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you.

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    Mike Haggett
    Kennebunk, ME

    Certified Weather
    Forecaster
    Penn State '21

    American Meteorological Society

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