Sunday February 11, 2024

2/11/2024

False spring is about to end

Before I get into this, a quick note to say thanks to all of my financial contributors. PTW is going through a serious technical upgrade at the home office, which is partly why the site has been idle. I opted to do posts on Facebook as I continue to work to things organized with the new system. Your investment in my efforts is much appreciated, and I look forward to doing more things going forward with your continued support.

Looking into the storm on Tuesday, most of the pieces are on the continent. The kicker is making landfall on Alaska Sunday morning. Models are still quite scattered because that piece has been running off satellite guesswork rather than balloon sampling. The forecast will begin to line up later today, and by Monday morning, the read should improve considerably.

The idea on how Tuesday plays out
as of early Sunday morning

Tuesday 1 AM (06z) to Wednesday 1 AM (06z) - I am going with the European model idea as it has shown some better consistency on track and timing, but precipitation amounts are debatable, especially to the north where I think dry air could eat up the lighter snow signal over the mountains into the north.

Snow begins to pick up over the southern areas in time for the morning commute. It becomes heavier through the morning as it overspreads western and eastern areas, then tapers off from west to east in the afternoon, heading into Tuesday evening.

The track is slightly north of the benchmark 40°N / 70°W point south of Nantucket. That brings the potential for more snow to the south. A winter storm watch has been issued for York County. If the forecast trend holds or jogs slightly north, that may bring more shoreline area counties into the watch and/or warning area. As I have said on Facebook over the past few days, Maine is on the fringe here, in comparison to Southern New England and Nova Scotia, where those areas are going to get hammered with this one.

Pending on how the wildcard kicker plays into this with the northern piece is going to dictate how north the developing coastal low goes. This is the key here.

Where the interior is at risk to under perform, the south, especially York County, could over perform.

This SKEW-T diagram shows an impressive heavy snowfall potential. To have a solid stream of upper-level moisture present from the jet stream level to the floor is a strong signal for over performance. Snowfall rates could exceed 2-3" per hour in this scenario, which will make travel difficult, and a challenge for road crews to keep roads clear.

For the shoreline areas, I can't rule out a bit of a mix or wet snow potential with the 40° ocean temperature. Potential for power outage from wet slop are greater for Southern New Hampshire, but I can't rule out the possibility for York County given the potential noted above.

Forecast northerly wind gusts are expected in the 20-30 mph range (30-40 mph shorelines / islands) during the day. As the storm departs, the wind increases out of the northwest. Hold that thought.

This forecast will be fine tuned with the Monday morning update posted here.

Shoreline issues expected to be minor

With the wind direction out of the north, that helps to push water away, which is key with the ongoing new moon tides. Seas will build up a bit for the early Wednesday morning high tide, but with the northwest wind cranking, that helps to contain that. Nuisance minor flooding is all that is expected with this system.

Northwest wind cranks heading into Wednesday

Tuesday 7 PM (00z Wednesday) to Friday 7 PM (00z Saturday) - A look at apparent temperature here to indicate wind chill values. As the storm departs, it continues to strengthen and gets hung up near Newfoundland, which will cause it to sit and spin through late week before being shoved toward Greenland heading into Friday.

Wind gusts on Wednesday appear to range in the 25-40 mph range across much of the state, with 40-50 mph possible for the mountains. Speeds begin to fall on Thursday, settling down by Thursday night. Speeds increase again on Friday as a storm passing through the Great Lakes heads east.

Temperature and outlook over the next 10 days

The pattern is expected to become more active with storm chances. There is potential for a storm next weekend, and another toward the middle part of the following week. Temperatures starting on Tuesday will be around normal for where we should be for this time of year.

Thank you to Allspeed Cyclery & Snow in Portland, Downeast Aerial Photography in Rockland, Dutch Elm Golf Club in Arundel,
and Sunrise Property Services in Bridgton, for partnering with Pine Tree Weather.

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- Mike

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