Pattern remains progressive through the week Without much upstream blocking, the forecast trend for the first half of the week moves along with little fanfare. A weak wave passes through after Sunday's brief warm-up to deliver snow showers to the mountains and north Sunday night into early Monday morning. High pressure slides through quickly Monday night into Tuesday. An inside runner heads from the Midwest into northern Quebec Tuesday into Wednesday and drags a long wave frontal boundary along with it into the region, bringing rain, seasonably warm temperatures, and the melting of the snowpack. Midweek storm brings concerns for flooding and wind Tuesday 7 PM (00z Wednesday) to Thursday 1 PM (18z) - A bit early to nail down too many specifics here, but enough to create a general idea of what to expect. The surge of warmth on Tuesday as a strong ridge moves in from the west is expected to bring temperatures up above freezing statewide and keep them there through Wednesday. Areas of rain which could be locally heavy at times with the tropical hose attached to the system. With cold air quickly coming in behind the front, I can’t rule out the risk of thunder during the transition. While this appears to be a rain event, a smattering of wet snow as a parting gift is possible and could slick the roads up as temperatures fall into Thursday morning. South / southeast wind is also in the offing, with the strength of that to be determined by the track and intensity of the parent low to the north.  Tuesday 7 AM (12z) to Thursday 7 AM (12z) - A look at the general idea of dew point temperatures in degrees Celsius shows roughly a 30-hour period of values above 0° (32° F) which would bring an extended period of snowmelt to areas that have it. This is likely to create areas of fog, locally dense in areas where there is more of a snowpack. Add rainfall to this pot of messy stew, it sets up the likelihood of runoff, and presents potential for some level of flooding.  Wednesday 7 AM (12z) to Thursday 7 AM (12z) - A look at what the European model “thinks” the region has for snow depth shows the erosion of the snowpack because of the warm temperatures and potential for rainfall. While this is likely overdone as the actual amount of snow may be less in areas, it leaves little doubt that what remains of the pack is likely to take a big hit. For those who live, work, and/or travel in the mountains where snowpack is greater, expect the potential for rising waters along brooks, rivers, and streams. Please stay updated on the risk of flood concerns.  As of the time of this post on Sunday morning, the idea is for eastern areas to receive much of the rainfall on the way, based on this Weather Prediction Center forecast. Any slowdown in the system could bring heavier rainfall amounts to the west. On the flip side, a more progressive solution would push the top amounts more to the east. This is a fair idea of what to expect at this point. If this idea continues to hold serve, some localized flooding would be possible for eastern areas with the frozen ground with the potential of ~2” of rainfall. It is also important to note that the south / southeast wind flow could increase rainfall amounts in the western mountains as moisture is thrown against the facing slopes, which would increase the flood risk.  The general idea on wind is for MidCoast and DownEast areas to receive the higher-end gusts. The strength and position of the low-level jet and its characteristics will have the final say on how impactful it may be regarding the potential for power outages. This is the middle-of-the-road idea. Stay tuned for updates on this as the forecast window narrows. Temperature outlook through the week    Check out PTW for information 24 hours a day Thank you to Allspeed Cyclery & Snow in Portland, Downeast Aerial Photography in Rockland, Dutch Elm Golf Club in Arundel, and Sunrise Property Services in Bridgton, for partnering with Pine Tree Weather. Special thanks to all the individuals and businesses who financially contribute. I sincerely appreciate your support. Always have MULTIPLE ways to receive weather alerts. Stay updated, stay on alert, and stay safe! - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the PTW IN MEDIA page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
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