Outlook for the week I mentioned in a Facebook post on Friday that the pattern was going to shift into a more progressive one. Using this loop of height anomaly in the 500mb steering level, you can see it in action. Without any upstream blocking over the Labrador / Greenland area or over the western Atlantic, quick hitting systems are what are on the way. If you watch this sped up loop towards the end, look up to Alaska. That is Old Man Winter winking at us. That's his way of saying he's not done with us yet. You can see face imagery watching these loops, and can be quite comical. Northwest breeze and wind chill continues through Tuesday A strong area of high pressure near the Mason / Dixon line heads for the Atlantic over the next couple of days. A weak cold front passes through the region to start the week. A ridge develops that brings moisture in from the Gulf of Mexico as the high departs. A turbo charged area of high pressure in Alaska as of Sunday morning racks up felony speeding tickets as it is expected to arrive to cut off the surge of precipitable water late on Tuesday.  Sunday 6 AM to Tuesday 7 PM - With the northwest breeze continuing, so does the wind chill. As the high to southwest works into the Atlantic, a southwest flow develops which modifies the air a smidge as the cold front approaches and passes through. The aforementioned area of high pressure arrives with Canadian Mounties in hot pursuit by Tuesday evening. Warm front moves in for midweek Sunday 6 AM to Wednesday 1 PM - Looking at this from the precipitable water loop shows the high from the Great White North racing to the southeast for the Maritimes as moisture surges up around the departing strong high over the Atlantic. That area of high pressure cuts off the advancement of the warm front ahead of the moisture, but it sets up a stationary front that will be a feature Thursday into Friday.  Tuesday 4 PM to Wednesday 10 PM - What moisture the warm front brings runs into bone dry air with the high as it arrives late Tuesday. Without a surface low to give it any support, what is depicted here may be more noise than value. Southwestern areas have the best chance of seeing precipitation. This is looking like a nuisance event with flurries and snow showers with a risk of light junk for York County, pending on timing. With forecast liquid equivalent precipitation less than a quarter inch, it's more of a Currier and Ives event, if anything. Late week thoughts While the midweek system is likely to be a nuisance, if that, the system late week appears annoying at this vantage point. This could be a widespread event, but there does not appear to be much water in this turnip, either. There is a fair slug of moisture to the south with the stationary front that could either nose northeastward or get shoved southwestward pending on how this sets up. Stay tuned. Temperature outlook through SaturdayA couple things here. The forecast low for Caribou of -10° Wednesday morning is where the red flags enter into my mind about precipitation chances / amounts for the south. That is deep, dry number there. How the rest of the week evolves depends on where the stationary front sets up and how north it advances, or not. My suggestion is to take the forecast temperatures with a grain of rock salt and see what happens.     Funded by your contributions Thank you to Allspeed Cyclery & Snow in Portland, Downeast Aerial Photography in Rockland, Dutch Elm Golf Club in Arundel, and Sunrise Property Services in Bridgton, for partnering with Pine Tree Weather. Special thanks to all the individuals who financially contribute. I sincerely appreciate your support. Always have MULTIPLE ways to receive weather alerts. Thank you for being part of my journey. Stay updated, stay on alert, and stay safe! - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the PTW IN MEDIA page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
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