Intense pattern through the week Looking over guidance data made me think back to the winter of 2014-15 and how the state took hit after hit in January and February with big storms. That was a strong El Niño season, and that is playing out now. While this El Niño is not as strong as that one, it's strong enough, and we're going to feel it. The snow event on Sunday will pale in comparison to what else is on the way this week. By next Sunday morning, it will be long forgotten about. We may be dizzied as to what hit us with the two other storms on the way this week by that point. This pattern is not for the faint of heart. We will be challenged and tested mentally and physically. We will persevere and rally together to get through it. We're all in this together. Strong blocking is in the process of setting up over Greenland and the north Atlantic. As a result, we're going to be dealing with it. Head on. Wrapping a bow on a snowy Sunday Sunday 6 AM to Monday 1 AM - A look at forecast 1-hour snowfall rates through Sunday evening. The darker hues of blues and purples indicate the chance for banding. These are the times and areas where snow is expected to thump. Snow tapers off from west to east Sunday evening, and those areas impacted will have a chance to dig out and recover overnight into Monday morning.  No changes to the snowfall map posted here on Saturday. Blowing and drifting of snow over the south will skew totals. I can't rule out upwards of 2 feet isolated areas of York County, but that may be enhanced by the wind. A reminder, this will blow around on Monday as the northwest wind cranks up. There is likely to be additional clean up required, and will cause slick conditions through the day. The wind settles down by Monday evening. Plow crews should be able to get some rest. They are going to need it. Thoughts on the next big one Tuesday into WednesdayGiven the fact that the Sunday storm is going on, watches won't be posted for this one until the current storm passes. I suspect they will begin to roll out Monday morning. The main core of energy for this storm is over the western part of the country, so there is something to get started with. The kicker energy is over the north Pacific. When that hits on Monday, the details can begin to be ironed out. The one thing that should be understood here is this storm is dynamic, complicated, and all intertwined. The order in how I unpack this is not necessarily the scale of impact. There is a domino effect. Like an engine, all the pieces work together to drive the motor.  Tuesday 1 PM to Thursday 1 AM - The idea is for snow to start off most everywhere. High pressure to the north keeps the cold over the interior to keep the precipitation frozen. The further north and away from the coast, snow hangs on longer. Most areas but the far north could see rain before it ends. Folks in ski country can count their blessings to a point. The idea of a secondary low continues to grow with more confidence, which holds the cold in place. Note that southern areas getting hit with snow on Sunday are expected to see mainly rain out of this...  That is where the interior flooding concern lies. The ground is frozen. Temperatures are going to spike up to around 50°. With an inch or two of rainfall with water content of the snow upwards of 1" over southwestern areas, it makes 2-3" of liquid going somewhere. Brooks, streams, small rivers, urban streets, and basements are the likely destination points. I don't expect much concern for eastern areas for flooding since the snowpack there is likely to be low after Sunday, but I can't rule it out at this point. Onto the next domino...  Interior areas that are blessed with snow are likely to find it wet and sticky. There comes the double-edged sword. That area where the concern for power outages rise up. How much snow? An unofficial rough sketch says 6-12". There could be 2-3" of liquid involved with that amount of snow. If that idea verifies, that would make for numerous trees, power, and internet lines down. Because there is the wind, too.  I am going to use what I have found to be a "worst case" model idea here to make a point. With these southeast wind direction storms, they can overperform. The timing of the development of the secondary low is critical to cutting down the southeast wind. This avoids another Grinch Storm 2023 situation over the interior, to a point. It will still be windy enough and with low ratio / high water content snow to be problematic in areas where snow is pasted to everything. To the south, the shorelines are likely to take the south / southeast wind head on. There is nothing to cut them off. Tropical storm to hurricane force gusts along the entire coastline appear to be a growing concern, strongest from eastern Casco Bay on up into the Bay of Fundy. If there is one escape for interior areas, it could be this...  Warm south / southeast wind over frozen ground does not like each other much. This is where cold air damming can become a friend. It still could be windy, just not as bad as if the ground was bare from snow cover and thawed out. A small inversion between 2,000' to the surface is all it takes to keep the worst of the wind where it belongs, up above. That said, wind gusts 35+ mph are still possible. The window for the highest speeds appears to be from midnight Wednesday to 8-10 AM for the south and west, and around 3-4 AM to 1 PM for the east, and 6 AM to around 6 PM over the north... for now. This is subject to change. The timing of the higher speeds is a concern for the coast.  If the ideas I see stay on track, the worst of the wind will be past Portland areas south by the time high tide arrives. That is likely not to be the case for MidCoast and DownEast areas. The waves aren't as crazy as the December storm, and that is due to the parent low of the storm tracking into western Quebec. If there is any slowdown in forward progress of the front and the development of the secondary low, that puts the southern coastlines into a more impactful situation. This is one of the critical fine details to be ironed out. A two-to-three-hour difference in timing to the slower is a big deal.  NOAA's storm surge forecast tool here with the idea of a 3' storm surge for both Bar Harbor and Portland. Astronomical tides are in play here as they are rising toward the peak of the new moon phase later in the week. I don't see how the coast escapes without some flooding. Again, the timing of the frontal boundary passage is critical here. Stay updated on the forecast as the fine details get worked out. Another one on the way for Saturday The initial idea is this one won't be as strong, but it's not what the area wants as it starts to recover from Wednesday's storm. For those that lose power on Wednesday, you may be out for a while. There could be strong wind associated with this one, also, along with a precipitation type buffet. Take NO stock in precipitation type for now, just know that this one could bring its own level of impacts and problems also. For shoreline interests, astronomical tides will be at their peak with this one. Stay tuned. I've got your back. Do you have mine? Thank you to Allspeed Cyclery & Snow in Portland, Downeast Aerial Photography in Rockland, Dutch Elm Golf Club in Arundel, and Sunrise Property Services in Bridgton, for partnering with Pine Tree Weather. Special thanks to all the individuals who financially contribute. I sincerely appreciate your support. Stay updated, stay on alert, and stay safe! - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the Who I Am page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
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