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First off, my busy period of life continues. It's all good, there is just a lot going on for me. My posts have been erratic and will continue to be through the week. I may drop quick updates on Facebook, pending on what is going on. Fortunately, there is no storms of significance in the pipeline, but there are few things to be aware of. March rolls along After an abnormally warm past couple of weeks, March begins to behave normally and offers some smarchy weather for Sunday. A cold front passes through the region, offering elevation snowfall, along with rain showers and the chance of a rumble of thunder or two over the south and MidCoast regions. The screenshot above depicts 850mb (~5,000') temperatures. After the weak temperature ridge ahead of the front clears out, that cold air aloft filters in, which will be a feature of the weather pattern over the next week. With that cold air aloft in conjunction with the time of year, we are heading into more of a convective shower/storm season. This is typical in spring. Given the fact that most areas are without snowpack, any sun will heat the surface rather quickly. As heat rises into the cold air aloft, clouds develop, convective showers form, and the risk of low-capped, weak thunderstorms, pending on the dynamics. It’s “head-on-a-swivel” season, where conditions can change quickly. As folks get outside for labor or recreation, it’s important to stay aware of this.  A clear indicator of convective showers with cold air at the low level is the presence of graupel. This graphic here shows the difference between the three most common forms of frozen precipitation types other than snow. It’s falling rime ice. Water droplets are supercooled, and attach to each other, creating a “soft hail” like substance. Given the current climate, I suspect that we could see an uptick of graupel-producing showers as we head into April. A breezy week ahead The change of seasons brings the wind, and the region will get its fix of it. Speeds are expected to increase as the week unfolds. Along with the wind comes the wind chill, which appears to get colder as the week unfolds. The mountains may see wind chill values fall below zero by late week. Repeated waves that pass over the region drive the wind. This increases the risk of snow showers at higher elevations, and a convective shower or two cannot be ruled out over the interior. Another concern I have as with the wind speeds increasing as the week progresses, relative humidity is expected to fall. This will allow for drying to occur on the surface. A few ideas are that humidity levels may fall far enough that fire danger levels may come into play later in the week. Outlook & temperaturesA sure sign of March is operational model ideas are playing liars poker with each other beyond 72 hours. After the weak system passes through on Sunday and a couple of breezy days on Monday and Tuesday, questions remain on precipitation type and amounts as we head into the rest of the week. As mentioned on Facebook this past Thursday, there is the risk of frozen precipitation next weekend. The last week of the month appears to be wet for southern areas. Portland is currently the third wettest for March and Bangor is the seventh wettest. On the flip side, Caribou's precipitation for the month is below normal. Average high and low temperatures for the north for March 17th are 34/16, and for the south 42/26. The state appears to be running on the cool side through next weekend.     Check out PTW for information 24 hours a day Thank you to Allspeed Cyclery & Snow in Portland, Downeast Aerial Photography in Rockland, Dutch Elm Golf Club in Arundel, and Sunrise Property Services in Bridgton, for partnering with Pine Tree Weather. Special thanks to all the individuals and businesses who financially contribute. I sincerely appreciate your support. Always have MULTIPLE ways to receive weather alerts. Stay updated, stay on alert, and stay safe! - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the PTW IN MEDIA page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
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