It so looks like El Niño...While the El Niño is fizzling out, it continues to hold an upper hand on the weather pattern. Since the general idea is the trend to neutrality before La Niña takes shape later in the year, it’s the transition that makes things interesting. What does neutrality mean? Temperatures and precipitation near average are how I perceive it. This is where my senses get raised. The comments I get from people are they are tired of this winter. It’s been an epic bust. Unless you live out west or eastern Canada, there has been little need for the shovels. Folks are ready to move on. The warm temperatures have people thinking of yard clean-ups and gardening. For those like me who like to chase the small white ball on the short grass, the idea of an early season start grows in the mind with anticipation. I mentioned in early December that I expected a backloaded winter, meaning that it could be a late start to spring, with late-season chances for snow and shots of cold. Here we are. As we head to neutrality, that is where the train is going. As the winter was frustrating for snow, this spring could be like fingernails on a chalkboard. Weather. It’s what you get.  Strong ridging with well above normal-temperatures dominates the first half of the week. Maine is caught between two pieces of bread, with another ridge over the Atlantic. Unsettled conditions with precipitation chances continue through the week. Interior areas have the best opportunity for some views of sunshine. Coastal areas are going to struggle to see the glowing gas ball. The pattern feels and acts more like early April. That is how the first half of the month is expected to start. Showers exit the region Sunday, but... Sunday 6 AM (11z) to Sunday 9 PM (02z Monday) – The showers taper off from west to east during the day and into the evening. Residual moisture hangs around, which means the risk of areas of fog and drizzle. A mix of sun and clouds to the north for the day as high pressure keeps most of The County dry. A chance for late-day sun over the west and south is possible. Eastern areas will have to wait until Monday to see some sun, as southern areas cloud up again. Two things to watch for the week ahead Sunday 7 AM (12z) to Sunday March 10th 8 PM (00z Monday March 11th) – The strong upper-level ridging is on full display through the week. As the ridge begins to collapse later in the week, things get a bit intriguing. It gets even more interesting as we head into the time change next weekend, with a deep trough expected to take shape. Psst... This is a decent sign that winter isn’t over yet. Rain on the way Tuesday into Wednesday High pressure to the south over the Atlantic holds serve and pinwheels disturbances around it. This one is expected to bring a chance for rain showers to the area Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. It appears to be a quick hitter, with a bit of a breeze, but nothing crazy. The flow off the ocean may juice rainfall totals up for the coast, as witnessed with this weekend’s disturbance. Expect areas of fog and drizzle Tuesday ahead of the anticipated rainfall. Potential junk storm on the way Thursday into Friday Sunday 7 AM (12z) to Friday 7 PM (00z Saturday) – A look at the 850mb temperatures at roughly 5,000 feet above shows the ridge collapse and a mid-level trough working in. Be forewarned that guidance is widely scattered with operational ideas but is in fair agreement on the cooldown aloft. Low pressure is expected to work its way through the region and may tap into cold air from high pressure to the northeast. If that happens, it could be a trashy event. If it can thread the needle, this could turn into a sloppy wet snow event for much of the region. This will be something to monitor and stay updated on.  The “maybe-a-bit-too-early-to-speculate” idea here from the Weather Prediction Center is anticipating this late-week storm could be a juicy affair. It all depends on the thermals and if dynamic cooling may come into play to figure out where gets what for precipitation type and amounts. It will be an interesting week watching this one. Temperature outlook through the weekConfidence is good on forecast temperatures through midweek, but with Thursday into Friday's uncertainty ringing rather loud, I don't hold much stock in that at this point. We'll see how it plays out.     Posting status erratic over the next ten daysI've got a lot going on through the first half of the month. It's important to stay updated with the late week storm, along with another storm possible the following weekend. I am going to do my best to keep tabs on what is going on and pass along thoughts as time permits. 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NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
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