Pattern remains consistent
The overall weather pattern over the past couple of weeks has been progressive and that is expected to continue into the near future. For storms of significance to occur the one key element needed is blocking, and there isn't any occurrence of it showing in the continental or the hemispheric viewpoint. The general idea moving into November is potential for some spicy shortwaves and weak clippers as the subtle ridging in the west and weak troughing in the east swap off and trade jabs with one another. One thing that is certain is there is a lot of cold air bottling up in the Arctic given the free-flowing pattern, which will release at some point. For now, it will stay up there, but it will be something to watch as winter unfolds.
The bottom line here is the El Niño is in firm control now and the game at this point is figuring out how long it will continue. Until there is a disruption whether stratospherically or a shift in trade winds equatorially, what we see is what we're going to get. Snow chances increase as temperatures gradually fall, but for those looking for the big dumper to put winter into overdrive are going to have to wait until the atmosphere gets jarred.
Potential for snow and rain Monday into Tuesday
Monday 1 PM to Wednesday 7 AM - An upper-level wave is on the way for the first of the week and it will have a bit of spice in it for the interior. This GFS idea is the coldest solution out there which shows the risk of some snow, with northern Maine and the higher western hills having the better chance for pick up a couple inches of frozen flakes. Tuesday morning could be slick in spots over the mountains and The County, where rain is the likely precipitation type for the coastal plain. There may be enough convective energy around to cause a rumble of thunder on Tuesday afternoon for southern areas. The mountains and north may deal with upslope snow showers into Wednesday.
There is not much juice expected with this wave. For the southern two-thirds of the region this is more of an annoyance than significance. Northern areas could see travel impacts as the snow changes to rain and then freezes back up Tuesday night.
Potential for wind on Wednesday
Tuesday 7 PM to Thursday 7 AM - A concerning signal for gusty winds primarily for the mountains and north on the backside of the system pending on intensification of the low as it moves into the Gulf of St. Lawrence. This loop of the European ensemble mean of potential for wind gusts exceeding 34 knots (39 mph) shows a strong probability of that over higher elevation. This idea is a bit of an outlier as compared to other guidance. The consensus indicates breezy conditions everywhere, it is just a matter of how stiff the westerly flow gets. If this idea verifies, there could be a few power outages possible.
Temperatures & outlook for the rest of the week
Temperatures overall are expected to be cooler than normal overall over the next ten days. Tuesday will run a bit above average before cooling off. Another wave is expected to pass through roughly Friday which may bring some form of precipitation, but it is expected to be light and with minimal impacts. This would bring temps slightly above normal as well.
For southern areas, temperatures may hit the 60s on Tuesday, which may be the last chance of that anytime soon.
I've got your back. Do you have mine?
Winter SKYWARN training sessions upcoming
The cost and training are FREE. You do not have to be meteorologically savvy to become a trained spotter. All that is needed is a causal interest in weather and a desire to learn more about it. The seminars are fast paced with a lot of information, along with items you may not have been aware of.
This is the WINTER weather seminar. If you participated in the SPRING seminar, you should attend this one to be fully trained. If you are a current spotter and have not done one of these in the past three years, you should sign up for a refresher.
For training through NWS Caribou (Aroostook, Hancock, Piscataquis, Penobscot, Northern Somerset, and Washington Counties), please click on the following dates to register:
Wednesday, November 8th from 6 - 7:15 PM
Wednesday, November 15th from 6 - 7:15 PM
Friday, November 17th from 6 - 7:15 PM
For more information, please check out the NWS Caribou SKYWARN page.
For training through NWS Gray (Androscoggin, Cumberland, Franklin, Kennebec, Knox, Lincoln, Oxford, central and southern Somerset, Waldo, and York Counties along with ALL of New Hampshire), please click on the following dates to register:
Monday, November 13 from 6 - 7:30 PM
NWS Gray is also offering a special COASTAL FLOOD spotter training seminar
Wednesday November 15th from 6 - 7:30 PM
This was well attended last fall. I know a few of you missed it last year that wanted to participate, so here is your chance.
For more information, please check out the NWS Gray SKYWARN page.
Thank you for your years of following and for your financial support. It is because of your funding that this operation continues.
God bless and stay strong. Be good to yourself.
Stay updated, stay on alert, and stay safe!
NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you.