Third NorEaster in review and a look ahead to a potential fourth next week

Latest storm in review

This was the snowfall map I posted yesterday. All in all I think I did alright with it judging the outcome. 

As far as the mountains of western Maine go, it is still snowing there and will through Thursday, so I can't say I busted low there. Coastal areas were all dependent on the mesoscale bands so I knew it was going to be a bit of crap shoot. Where they ended up, it matched my 18-24" idea. Where they didn't, I busted there. 

The 18-24" idea did real well in Eastern Maine. I knew the northeast corner of the rooftop would be a challenge, but it hasn't stopped snowing there either. 

Maybe you think I did alright or maybe you think I blew it. That is your call. I don't see where I need to call myself out for missing it bad on this one, so by-in-large I am satisfied with my forecast.  I knew the banding would tell the tale, and it did. Those are very difficult to forecast.

A quiet period through the weekend

This forecast loop runs from 8 PM Wednesday to 8 PM Monday. This is one model idea presented as a rough idea of what to expect. What to expect is a pretty quiet weekend once the current storm spins itself out. 

After a mild day on Thursday, temperatures drop heading into Saturday where the mercury will struggle to make it above freezing in the far south. Sunday and Monday will be hair warmer, but the mountains and north appear locked in sub 32° temps through early next week from Friday onward.  

Our nights are going to be chilly from Friday night onward with single digits and teens Friday night into the middle part of next week. These cold temperatures set the table for another storm. 

Then there is the potential for the next one...

I posted this on Twitter this morning. The pattern is ripe here for another event. Both the European (ECMWF, left) and the American GFS (GEFS, right) ensembles are toying around with the idea. Looking a bit deeper... 

... it is virtually identical to what the last two events have brought. Blocking to the north, cold from the northwest, strong high pressure to the east, and plenty of Gulf of Mexico moisture to work with. 

It's far to early to commit and say that it will happen, but I would give it a 60% chance that something could happen. These are all signals only for now. I expect model solutions to be north, south, east, west, on again, and off again until the weekend on this one. This is something to keep an eye on for sure.

Welcome to all the new followers on Facebook

I see my numbers have spiked up considerably as a result of the latest storm. Thank all of to those who shared Pine Tree Weather to the masses. This was the most viewed post I have had since the blizzard in January 2013 when I was operating Western Maine Weather. 

It is VERY important that you follow the Pine Tree Weather Facebook page as noted in the picture  above to get the updates I put out. This is information that you can use. 

Weather in Maine is very timely, and it changes quickly. The geography, topography and atmospheric patterns make forecasting a real challenge around here. I've lived in this state for 48 years. I've seen Mother Nature laugh at forecasters and embarrass the best of them at times. Some days I wonder why I decided to pick this up as a hobby when guidance is not very helpful. I've been embarrassed a few times myself. Some humans may think they have control over the environment through weather guidance, and I can tell you from experience that is not the case. Not even close. Humans have a long way to go to break the code. The one thing that has come along is that models supply better clues, but Mother Nature holds the card for the final outcome. 

When I hear "Forecasters never get it right" or "it must be nice for these meteorologists to get paid to be wrong all the time" I wince. I was one of those cynical types who thought forecasters were idiots when something blew up. Now that I am on this side of the fence, I humbly apologize to every forecaster I cursed at.

The truth be known, weather forecasting is about ideas. It's not an exact science. We who forecast know that there is always margin of error. The root of the game is not be far off in error. Forecasting is a lesson in humility, perseverance, open-mindedness and on going education. Every storm is different. For me, it is very spiritual. Some other time I will get into that. 

Thanks for joining me for the ride. You can find out more about me by clicking on the "Who I Am" tab on the website. 

In other news, I am closing on the new home in Kennebunk tomorrow. I expect to move within a month. Updates will likely be off an on until summer when we finally get settled. 

Thanks again for your support! 

-Mike