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Thursday August 24, 2023

8/24/2023

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Steering level overview and outlook

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The 500mb steering level over the continent is about to shift sharply into a pattern that resembles mid-fall. Given the time of year and the amount of available daylight to heat the atmosphere, it will take a bit of time for the temperatures to catch up to it and cool down. We've had a taste of it in the past couple of mornings with cool, comfortable, below normal starts. With the transition to fall already occurring in the overall pattern, there will be more of that. 
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Thursday 8 AM to Tuesday 8 AM - The forecast steering level put into motion here over the next few days shows a few things. It's basically full-on winter in the Arctic above Hudson Bay noted with the greens and blues. The death ridge over the south is in the process of being shoved to the west but will grow taller and reach into the Yukon by early next week. Incredible blocking over the Atlantic and the deepening trough over the east is where I have some concerns. The upper-low associated with TS Franklin moves northward and could be a CAT2 hurricane affecting Bermuda early next week. The long-term ideas point to more of a concern for the Canadian Maritimes than Maine, but it is too early to write it off. That is ridiculous blocking ridge over the Atlantic, and with the deepening trough to the west over the Great Lakes, it is all about timing and strength of all the ingredients there that will determine where Franklin goes. 

Showers and storms Friday & Saturday,
​showers possible Sunday

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Thursday 8 PM to Sunday 1 PM - Models ideas are flipping around with an assortment of ideas with the development of a surface low ahead of the deepening trough for the weekend.  This is shaping up to be a slow mover that will bring the best chance for showers and storms Friday and Saturday, with a weaker trailing wave to pass through on Sunday that could bring some showers as well. The severe storm threat appears very low at this point, but an isolated threat can't be ruled out. 

Some wind is expected on Friday that could range in the 20-30 mph range for the coast and mountains, but nothing of any power outage concern.
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The low gets an injection of moisture from the south and could bring another inch or two of rainfall across much of the region. The areas that have the best chance to see 2"+ are MidCoast and DownEast areas along with the mountains. Flash flood guidance is still high. While I do not expect a flood watch, there is a fair chance for localized statements being issued.

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​NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you

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    Mike Haggett
    Kennebunk, ME

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