An intriguing little system While eyes are focused to the west with our next system, what is impressive is just offshore of Newfoundland. Barometric pressure around 950 mb, totally occluded with the injection of dry air in the core of it, but a massive, high impact storm none the less. Switching back to the Great Lakes region, the pieces are together for the storm that will bring some fluff to the region overnight into Friday morning. As I was anointing this low-level water vapor image, I had to chuckle a bit when I saw the well defined kicker on the heels of the developing low. Needless to say there is bust potential and red flags everywhere with this one, but it's fun nonetheless. Keep one thing in mind here, I am talking about 0.10"-0.30" of liquid involved with this. That is about the same as an ounce of water. Slight changes in track lead to different outcomes This is the 500mb vorticity (upward motion from temperature change) ideas from the two American short term models, the NAM3km and the HRRR from 1 AM (06z) Thursday morning looking out 24 hours. The NAM3 is slightly south and flatter, whilst the HRRR is further north and a bit tighter. Both are being driven by a developing upper-low to the north. In Wednesday's update I showed the high end potential from the NAM3 in both BUFKIT and 1-hour snowfall rate potential. Snow to water ratio on average with this system is 20:1. Quick math says 0.10" of liquid = 2" of snow, and 0.30" = 6" of snow. The HRRR is the juiciest of the ideas now.  Thursday 9 PM (02z Friday) to Friday 7 PM (00z Saturday) - I want to be crystal clear that I don't believe this idea is correct. It's the extreme outlier. Given the fact that there is an inverted trough involved with this and knowing from years of experience of living here how they can surprise on the high end is why I am showing you this. The ideas between the NAM3 and HRRR are closely aligned on timing. Amounts vary. This is the high end, because the idea is more to the north. The further north (Greenville , Millinocket) the higher risk of getting little to nothing out of this. The further south (MidCoast, Portland) has the higher risk of getting more, which is what the HRRR indicates. This solution would also bring bonus snow to the mountains. If you look real close, you can see the heavy bands pop up as the surface low plugs into moisture from the Gulf of Maine before it gets pushed southeast. Timing and position is everything here.  Expect the Friday morning commute to be greasy with the fluff that will act like ice on untreated surfaces and the roads less travelled. Most of the snow is expected to be down by mid-morning. Seeing a bit of a shift to the east in modeling hints that this could move more towards DownEast areas, and potentially bring less for York County.  Friday Midnight (05z) to Saturday 7 PM (00z Sunday) - In the aftermath of the snowfall, comes the wind. While it won't be excessive, the fluff factor of the snow will allow it to blow around as the storm intensifies on the way out to sea, with the stronger gusts along the I-95 and Route 1 corridors. This could cause whiteouts while driving, and extra scrapes and salt runs for the plow folks. The breeze continues overnight, picks up a bit on Saturday as another system tracks to the south, then settles heading into Saturday night. Outlook through Monday Friday 1 PM (18z) to Monday 7 PM (00z Tuesday) - An upper-level trough sinks to the southeast Friday as the storm departs and keeps a trailing system south of the region on Saturday. Coastal areas may see some light snow showers or flurries from the trailing system, but nothing of any travel concerns. A weak clipper passes through Sunday night into Monday which may bring snow shower to the mountains and north. After this, a dry week is on tap, with the next storm potential late week. Website upgrades and tweaks continuePlease take the time to check out different pages, see what is available. I continue to improve the data available on this site to give you the information you need at anytime across the state. I am not done with the upgrades yet as I am always exploring options to improve.  Thank you to Allspeed Cyclery & Snow in Portland, Downeast Aerial Photography in Rockland, Dutch Elm Golf Club in Arundel, and Sunrise Property Services in Bridgton, for partnering with Pine Tree Weather. Special thanks to all the individuals and businesses who financially contribute. I sincerely appreciate your support. Always have MULTIPLE ways to receive weather alerts. Stay updated, stay on alert, and stay safe! - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the PTW IN MEDIA page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
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