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Before I get into it, a quick recap of what happened Wednesday, because that storm is important with this upcoming system. Most of what was predicted verified. Snowfall, rainfall, potential for interior flooding, strong wind gusts in the high wind warning area, hurricane force wind gusts offshore, the coastal flooding, storm surge. and assault. The one notable exception was the low-end power outage numbers, which I don’t think disappointed anyone. I mentioned in a post earlier in the week that cold air damming was going to play a role in with the wind at the surface, and it did exactly that. The cold near the surface thanks to the new snow created an inversion which kept the downdraft of the low-level jet aloft and spared the western interior from a big outage problem. That was the difference maker and amen to that. We have a similar system on the way. This system is shaping up to be lighter version in comparison with what the region just experienced. A look from above A weak cold front passes through the region Thursday which will bring cold air in for Friday. High pressure slides east ahead of the storm on the way for Saturday. The Big Chill is about to unload over much of the country heading into next week, and our region is expected to get a modified version of it. For the Midwest, it is going to hurt. The next one Saturday Midnight to Sunday Midnight - A slightly different set up for this one with the parent low more to the west. Guidance is still playing around with what the pressure of that will be along with the development of the secondary low. All of these are key features as to how this plays out. The good news is all of the upper level players are on the continent, so there is some fair confidence in how this is going to evolve. Southern and western areas can expect precipitation falling to start Saturday. Northern and eastern areas see it begin in the morning. Precipitation ends from southwest to northeast Saturday afternoon into the evening. Shoreline impacts likely to be severeI want to start off with the shorelines because that is where the concern for the greatest impacts is likely to occur. The height of the astronomically high tide along with the storm surge set a record in Bar Harbor for the highest tide and came in third overall for Portland in recorded history. I am sure you’ve seen the pictures, and my heart goes out to those who dealt with it head on. This is set to happen again. I showed these two storm surge graphics side by side in Sunday’s post here leading up to the Wednesday storm. I am going to show them again here.  Using Wednesday as a benchmark reference with what verified there with the surge forecast on the way for Saturday, the threat of a potentially worse outcome is obvious and ominous. The fact that we are likely dealing with a 985-980mb parent low over western Quebec spinning off a secondary ocean low. Tides will be at their highest of the month in this new moon phase. The forecast height of the high tides in Portland is 11.20’, and for Bar Harbor 12.82”, that is 2½ to 3 feet higher than the low during half-moon period for these two locations. Add the 4' forecast surge you see in the graphic above, that appears to be a potential historic high tide situation for both locations. Timing of the surge will be of the essence, and that is the tipping point for flooding and inundation.  In my view, seeing what happened Wednesday and what could happen on Saturday, moderate to major coastal flooding and inundation should absolutely be prepared for. Taking into consideration the onshore flow that will drive the surge into the shoreline, along with the surf, there are too many signals involved here that CANNOT be overlooked. It boils down to storm strength and timing, and there is no time wait at this point. The odds are heavily stacked in favor of serious problems. Thankfully the surf isn't expected to be as high and the wind not as strong. This is what is working in favor of the situation. It's not a matter of IF it will be bad, it's about how bad it ends up being. For those with shoreline interests, you need to be prepared, whether it is securing property or evacuation to be safe. Wind on the way, but not as crazy My next concern is the wind. Like with previous storm, the shorelines get hit head on with it, and the taller mountains will deal with it as well. The chance for hurricane force wind gusts over the Gulf of Maine is there, but not like the signal ahead of the Wednesday storm. The good news is this system is expected to be progressive and move along at a good clip, with potentially less of a window for high end gusts as was seen with the previous storm. If that idea holds up, that could reduce the number of power outages. The threat of wind away from the shorelines below the mountains depends on the snow cover. The more snow around means less of a chance for serious wind related problems, the less snow may mean wind may be more of an issue. Cold air damming will help keep the wind down over the interior. Much like the region saw Wednesday, a discreet line of strong wind as the front passes through is likely to bring the strongest gusts. As with that storm, when the heavy amounts of precipitation end, the strong wind ends with it. Expect a wind shift to the the west /southwest after the storm departs and a breezy day to follow on Sunday. Another junky slop fest for precipitation Looking at it from a total liquid standpoint here, confidence is good that this part of the forecast will verify. Interior flooding issues appear minimal for now. There could be some localized run off over southwestern areas where snow remains from Sunday. A hat tip to CoCoRaHS observers who melt down the frozen to provide an accurate read on how much water was received. In these snow to mix to rain events, precipitation type amounts are always a challenge and where bust potential runs moderate to high. This system is no different in that regard.  Given the fact that most of the precipitation moving through occurs in the daytime with marginal cold, a few sloppy inches with light sleet and freezing rain is on the way for the interior, before it changes to rain. This is going to be a pain for those that get frozen accumulation because it will need to be cleaned up as cold air gets dragged in behind the storm and freezes everything up everywhere by Sunday morning. There is potential for areas of black ice to develop on roadways where rain is the dominant precipitation type. The mountains could see higher totals of snow pending on timing of the warm air intrusion. The fine tuning on the forecast comes on Friday. NorEaster next week? Guidance has turned down the volume from heavy metal to soft rock in the past 24-hours on this idea. The upper level players are over the Pacific at this point. Confidence is good that it will be cold enough for snow, and the coast has the best chance for it at this point. Ideas are spread out, which is typical a week out. Stay tuned. Heading into the 13th year because of support from you Thank you to Allspeed Cyclery & Snow in Portland, Downeast Aerial Photography in Rockland, Dutch Elm Golf Club in Arundel, and Sunrise Property Services in Bridgton, for partnering with Pine Tree Weather. Special thanks to all the individuals who financially contribute. I sincerely appreciate your support. Stay updated, stay on alert, and stay safe! - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the Who I Am page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
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