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PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT - For those tuning in on social media, make sure you check the site here for the most recent update. My feed on Twitter / X has a pinned post, and the feed on the Facebook page has my most recent update below the pinned announcement. It will be very important to stay tuned to the forecast as we head into a rough stretch, and you will want the most current information, no matter which other sources you look at. Here comes winter As you check the temperature to start Thursday, chances are that it will be the high of the day. A wave passing through the St. Lawrence River Valley passes through the region in the morning. A northwest wind picks up behind it, which will send temperatures down to about three steps up from the cellar by evening. If that isn't cold enough for you, another wave near the Saskatchewan / Manitoba border races southeast to bring another reinforcing blast of cold by Friday morning. Isolated areas of snow showers are expected statewide, with a better chance in the mountains and north where 1-3" of fluff are possible. Travel impacts are expected to be minor, if any, over the foothills and the coastal plain. While all of that is going on, the storm on the way for Sunday begins to get its act together on Friday and heads northeast on Saturday. Coldest start of the season Friday morning Folks waiting for the bus are likely to be walking popsicles Friday morning.. Gusty winds of 20-35 mph from the air conditioner fan are expected overnight Thursday, through Friday, then settle down for most but the north by Saturday morning. Sunday storm outcome coming into a slightly better view I've mentioned recently the issue with guidance solving upper-level lows that pass through Arizona. It's been a known problem for years. It causes hiccups and jumps with models, and that came into view in Wednesday mornings model runs, notably the European as it went from not much snow to a over a foot and retreated back with the Thursday overnight run. There are still some strong differences in solutions with other guidance, but there is some consistency with low pressure tracking very close to the benchmark 40° N / 70° W point south of Nantucket. It's a slight shift to the north from the Wednesday overnight run, and a bit stronger, which would bring the chance for more snow over more area.  This is shaping up to be a York County Special, which has been in the cards all along here. While it is still to early to nail down specifics given the volatility of ideas, there is a fair chance for 6".  I am not ruling out a bump to the north or a jog to the south that could add or subtract snowfall amounts. Given the timeframe to when the first flakes begin to fly Saturday evening-ish, it would be best to plan on it for areas around Route 2 and south, and stay tuned. With the upper low clearing out of the southwest and moving east, guidance should come into better agreement. Given the potential impacts to the southwest of us, NOAA hurricane reconnaissance is going to do a scheduled mission to take a closer look at this one. Data gathered from that will help fine tune ideas as well. Is your car prepared for winter? I know for folks in the mountains and north it is an afterthought at this point, but for those in the south, what is coming is the first shot of winter of the season. Like storm supplies for the house, your personal vehicle needs to be prepared as well. Check your washer fluid levels and the condition of your wiper blades while you are at it. They will be getting some use very soon. Latest thinking on the next one I know some folks are looking at Sunday with some level of excitement and anticipation, but this is the one that needs to be on the minds of everyone in the area. Guidance continues to be hot on the idea of a high impact system Tuesday night into Wednesday. The ideas vary from potential for interior snow and coastal rain. The other wrinkle that is coming into play is potential for a secondary low to form which would cut the high wind potential down, but the trade off would be heavy snow across much of the region, which keeps power outage potential in play. Astronomical tides will be up, and a shoreline battering is certainly a concern. We could get a break for a couple days, and potentially get hit again the following weekend. "This is your captain speaking... please fasten your seat belts and prepare for turbulence." Stay tuned. Thank you for making my 2 AM alarms worth it Thank you to Allspeed Cyclery & Snow in Portland, Downeast Aerial Photography in Rockland, Dutch Elm Golf Club in Arundel, and Sunrise Property Services in Bridgton, for partnering with Pine Tree Weather. Special thanks to all the individuals who financially contribute. I sincerely appreciate your support. Stay updated, stay on alert, and stay safe! - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the Who I Am page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
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