Active pattern continues The storm that the region is dealing with to start the day is heading out at a steady pace. Precipitation tapers off from west to east this afternoon, ending in time for all but DownEast areas in time for the evening commute. Expect it to be breezy throughout the day and into Friday, with the fan shutting off for most areas by Friday evening. Flood warnings are posted for several interior rivers. Areas downstream of the majors (Saco, Androscoggin, Kennebec) should be aware of the potential for minor issues through Friday, with no other real concerns beyond that. Keep this recent rainfall in mind as we proceed into the weekend storm. Thoughts on the next one Referring to the lead graphic, one main piece to this puzzle is the cold infusion that is arriving onshore of British Columbia this morning. Hopefully, this will bring guidance into better agreement. Ideas remain scattered, but there is enough confidence to understand how this system may impact the region. Snow for the north is a fair bet. Uncertainty for precipitation type in the western foothills to interior DownEast areas is there given the disagreement in ensemble ideas. Rain for the coast is likely. Time will tell with the cold on if this starts as snow for the shorelines heading into Sunday morning, but given the track and the moisture feed, it may not amount to much and be quickly washed away.  Saturday 1 PM (18z) to Tuesday 2 PM (18z)— The setup of this storm has me concerned that the outcome may be disappointing on the snow end for the ski hills in western areas. I don’t like the fact that high pressure over Baffin Island and its relative weakness is where the cold and north-end steering is coming into this. Part of the reason why the track has shifted more to the west is that. The other factor here is the lead piece is the warm piece. What cold is expected to be around is marginal at best. With the lead moisture stream coming in “hot” this is where red flags get raised in my mind. For the potential rain aspect of this, with all of the recent rain from Thursday and earlier in the month, the brooks, streams, and rivers will be up, and with an additional 1-2” of rain on the way, I do have concerns about flooding.  I am picking on King Euro here since it is leading the hype train for big snow for the mountains. Looking at the thermals from the operational side, it doesn’t give me a whole lot of confidence that the idea it’s selling at this point is going to validate. I’d like to see stronger, deeper cold during the main precipitation window. Since the cold infusion comes in later, that leaves the door open for the warm lead energy to spoil the party. For the hills to get the big snow, it is going to need some strong vertical velocity (banding) for it to rip, which means a stronger storm. That is a possibility. But with the warmth lurking in the neighborhood, it may end up being more slop than substance. This is part of the intrigue that will get ironed out.  For those with shoreline interests, the coastal hugger track means potential for minor to moderate flood potential with the king tide. The one thing working for a lesser impact scenario is the storm is considerably weaker than the January shoreline obliterators, but it still could be problematic pending on the timing of the low-level jet streak and the southeasterly wind push that brings the surge in. It would be wise to continue to prepare for impacts given the dynamics. Check out PTW for information 24 hours a day Thank you to Allspeed Cyclery & Snow in Portland, Downeast Aerial Photography in Rockland, Dutch Elm Golf Club in Arundel, and Sunrise Property Services in Bridgton, for partnering with Pine Tree Weather. Special thanks to all the individuals and businesses who financially contribute. I sincerely appreciate your support. Always have MULTIPLE ways to receive weather alerts. Stay updated, stay on alert, and stay safe! - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the PTW IN MEDIA page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
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