Progressive pattern keeps major storms away It's been a relatively quiet and cool week for Maine and that trend is expected to continue into the first full week of November. The weekend ahead appears mainly dry outside of some upslope showers and snow flurry potential for the higher hills, but that is it for precipitation potential. Early November starts off feeling like late November for temperatures, but those will modify to milder conditions as the steering pattern meanders over the area.  Wednesday 8 PM to next Wednesday 8 PM - This is one of the more progressive patterns the region has seen over the past couple of weeks for quite a while. After dealing with blocking through the summer into September as the El Niño began to take form, now that it is in control, there is little in the way of obstruction which keeps the atmosphere moving along. For those curious, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is muted given the strength of the El Niño. Other key oscillations are relatively neutral. It's smooth sailing here for a while without any major concerns for heavy snow or storms.  The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center indicates a cool and damp trend into the next week. The storm anticipated Monday into Tuesday next week is the source of the above normal precipitation, but the jury is out at this point how much above normal it will be, given the progressive nature of the pattern. Overall, it's not bad for early November. Breezy conditions Friday into Saturday Friday 2 AM to Saturday 8 PM - A storm over central Quebec drags a weak frontal boundary through the region on Saturday. High pressure that has brought cool conditions in the past couple of days heads off to the east and sets up a southwest flow that pumps milder air into the region Friday. As the front passes through Saturday, the wind direction shifts to the northwest which will bring temperatures down a few degrees for Sunday. The wind settles, giving the region a fair day overall to round out the weekend. The storm expected for Monday / Tuesday appears to be an inside runner as it is expected to track up the St. Lawrence River valley, which would put our region on the warm side of it, making it a mainly rain event as it appears at the time of this post Thursday morning. Allspeed's big ski swap event is coming Saturday Our ski swap starts at 10am on Saturday, November 4th! We recommend getting here early to get a good spot in line so you can have a first look at the selection. The world famous Allspeed Ski Swap is BACK! Join us for our annual ski swap, it's a great way to buy and sell used gear! Our ski swap will work exactly the same as our bike swap, you bring in ski gear and if it sells you have the choice between 100% store credit or a check (we take a small commission if you choose to get a check). For more details, simply click on the image to direct you to the website. Temperature outlook through next week Milder conditions are expected to move into southern areas thanks to the southwest flow scouring out the cooler air through Saturday. After the frontal passage, they dip a bit. I am not sure if the south will reach 60° on Tuesday given the rain potential, but it can't be ruled out with the warmer air working in.  The north and mountains are expected to dip below freezing for most nights going forward. Seasonably cool temperatures amplify after the storm passes Tuesday as a northwest wind brings the chill. That is expected to hold on into next weekend. Winter SKYWARN training sessions upcoming The cost and training are FREE. You do not have to be meteorologically savvy to become a trained spotter. All that is needed is a causal interest in weather and a desire to learn more about it. The seminars are fast paced with a lot of information, along with items you may not have been aware of. This is the WINTER weather seminar. If you participated in the SPRING seminar, you should attend this one to be fully trained. If you are a current spotter and have not done one of these in the past three years, you should sign up for a refresher. For training through NWS Caribou (Aroostook, Hancock, Piscataquis, Penobscot, Northern Somerset, and Washington Counties), please click on the following dates to register: Wednesday, November 8th from 6 - 7:15 PM Wednesday, November 15th from 6 - 7:15 PM Friday, November 17th from 6 - 7:15 PM For more information, please check out the NWS Caribou SKYWARN page. For training through NWS Gray (Androscoggin, Cumberland, Franklin, Kennebec, Knox, Lincoln, Oxford, central and southern Somerset, Waldo, and York Counties along with ALL of New Hampshire), please click on the following dates to register: Monday, November 13 from 6 - 7:30 PM NWS Gray is also offering a special COASTAL FLOOD spotter training seminar Wednesday November 15th from 6 - 7:30 PM This was well attended last fall. I know a few of you missed it last year that wanted to participate, so here is your chance. For more information, please check out the NWS Gray SKYWARN page. PTW needs your financial support for 2024 Thank you for your years of following and for your financial support. It is because of your funding that this operation continues. God bless and stay strong. Be good to yourself. Stay updated, stay on alert, and stay safe! - Mike NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
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