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Bolaven to jumpstart the fall pattern
This is the time of year where I start paying closer attention to what is going on in the western Pacific along with northeastern Asia to get clues for patterns and storms. There is always one intense storm that pops the cork on the bottle of cold bubbly in the Arctic and starts a chain reaction, and this storm is the one. An impressive CAT5 super typhoon with wind gusts greater than 200 mph and generating seas 50-60 feet is on its way to the Aleutian Islands by early next week.
At the beginning of this loop, you'll find Bolaven in the top left of the chart near the 20°N label. It is expected to turn into a strong upper low in the Gulf of Alaska and then see the energy slip into the Arctic and then break the dam which unloads a deep trough over the country during the last full week of the month. This will bring heavy snow over the Rockies and below normal temperatures to many areas. It could also bring some flakes to the higher elevations in our region, especially over 5,000 feet. I am not sounding the horn to put the plows on, but I am suggesting that it is time to get that woodpile that you may be ignoring to have that stacked and ready for use.
Also of note, if we get a decent storm about two weeks out, there is a chance that upper-level energy from Bolaven might be involved with it. Remember that.
Showers with a possible rumble on Thursday
Thursday 6 AM to Friday Midnight - The upper-low that has been spinning around over eastern Canada all week is finally starting to move east. It is expected spin a wave through as it begrudgingly gets its marching orders to head out. This could produce some convective showers and isolated thunderstorms. The showers and storms could bring some heavy rain, pea size hail, graupel, and some wind. The best chance is for the mountains and north, but I can't rule out southern and eastern areas getting in on the action. I don't expect anything severe. Thunder may be on loud end of spectrum given the cold air aloft. If you hear it, head indoors and wait it out.
Friday morning to feel like December
Thursday 2 PM to Friday 2 PM - As the wave spins through and the low moves toward the Maritimes, a northwest wind begins to crank as the upper low spins up an intensifying surface low that impacts the Gulf of St. Lawrence region over the weekend. Expect gusts in the 20-30 mph range with stronger gusts in the mountains. While frost is not expected given the wind, the ambient temperature due to wind chill appears to be in the 20s and 30s across much of the state Friday morning. Any folks planning on mountain hikes over the weekend are advised of snow flurries, wind gusts of 40+ mph and wind chills in the teens for the higher hilltops.
Friday 8 AM to Monday 8 AM - An area of low-pressure tracking across the central part of the country gets shoved to the south, thanks in part to the developing low over the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Saturday appears to be the better of the two days as far as sun goes for most. The north and mountains may have to deal with some nuisance showers on Sunday, with much of the state dealing with clouds. Expect breezy conditions to persist through Monday with the storms moving around the region.
Extended outlook into next week
With the wind settling down Monday, this brings the risk of frost back into the picture Tuesday and perhaps the middle part of the week. There is an idea of an ocean storm floating around roughly Wednesday that appears to stay far enough east with the operational view, but there is some ensemble ideas that indicate a more westward track that could brush the coastline with showers. Southern areas will be a bit warmer with more in the way of 60s for highs with 40s for lows, which is in line with seasonal average.
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NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you.