Timing of upper wave to dictate snow amounts for Tuesday into early Wednesday

Another storm with bust potential

As of Sunday afternoon, this storm does not look to have much impact over much of the state. This is another system where timing will dictate who gets snow and who does not. As with the storm last week that just flirted with the coastline, this one has similar characteristics. 

Flat energy means timing is everything

A look at 500 mb upper level energy (~ 20,000 ft) shows a flat wave coming through the region, passing northwest to southeast. Given the fact that the moisture to the southwest is slow in arrival along the front, this turns into a timing game. If the upper level energy slows down, this means potential for coastal areas to pick up a couple extra inches of snow. If it speeds up, this means most of the area gets shut out, with flakes to an inch possible for southern areas, and not much else for anywhere else. Given the dry air ahead of the system from the arctic high that settles over the region briefly on Monday, my confidence in snow amounts is quite low.

While this is my idea for now, I have low confidence in this forecast for the reasons I indicated. As I see it at this point, this is likely the worst case scenario. As witnessed last week, 30 miles is the difference whether snow accumulates or not. This is another one of those cases where folks in the 2-5" range could be in the 1-2" (or less) range pending on the timing of the upper level energy.

Best chance for higher amounts of snowfall, if you want to call it that, would be for York County.

I will update on this on Monday.

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​- Mike