Triple flood threat for the region through Monday, at least

Plenty of water in the snow pack to be released

As the graphic indicates, this is the amount of water contained within the snow that is on the ground from a survey done this past Sunday through Tuesday. Much of the western mountains and northern areas of the state have 4-9" of water waiting to be released from its frozen condition. While this event may not eliminate it in its entirety, I suspect this graphic to look less ominous by this time next week. 

Along with river flooding, comes
potential for flash flooding

Northern areas see the heavy rain Friday afternoon into the night. The rest of the region sees the heavy rain Friday night into Saturday. Showers are likely to continue into Sunday, perhaps Monday morning. 

With long wave frontal boundaries comes tropical moisture. With that tropical moisture comes the threat of downpours and thunderstorms. In one scenario, thunderstorms over frozen areas could lead to rapid melting, fast rising brooks, streams and rivers that could cause ice jams. Another scenario is that the ground may be clear of snow, but downpours and thunderstorms could cause flash flooding due to the nature of them. 

There is no question that the areas with snow cover and iced up tributaries could see the greater affects with what is coming. Folks down stream along the coast will see the rivers rise as well, likely as we head into next week.   ​

Then there is the coastal threat

Tides are astronomically high through the weekend due to the full moon. One key feature to this frontal boundary is that the wind direction will be onshore from the south until the storm passes late weekend. Under those conditions, ocean water will be pushed toward the coast. ​

Important to note, the highest tides are in the wee hours of Saturday and Sunday morning. At this point, what flooding occurs is appears to be minor. Expect splash over and some beach erosion in the low lying areas.

Regional outlook through Tuesday

After the weekend is over, the best chance for sun appears to be in northern areas to start next week. The rest of the region may have to deal with some shower activity, pending on a cold front passing through on Monday, and a potential ocean low for Tuesday. Confidence beyond Sunday is low at this point. 

► ► For the latest official forecasts, bulletins and advisories, please check in with the National Weather Service in Gray for western and southern areas, or Caribou for northern and eastern parts of Maine.

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​- Mike