Sticking a fork in the storm that wasn't going to be I look at this storm and think back to December 2011 when a big storm idea similar to this one busted. “The forecasters are idiots!” was what I was thinking then. The media climbs on the hype train nationally, regionally, and locally. This cranks the volume WAY up. Storm watches are issued. People plan for school, daycare, and business closings. Folks also plan disruption in personal and business travel and logistical interference. Politicians take the stage to talk about preparation in the more populated areas. While all of that is going on, the forecast ideas change. What looked like a wallop became a minor inconvenience or a flurry. The focus turns to outrage toward weather forecasters. “It must be nice to get paid for a job where you are wrong all the time!” along with other salty verbiage. Politicians retake the stage and throw the National Weather Service under the bus to fuel the fire. Broadcast meteorologists see hate-filled emails and social media comments, some taken way too far. This is what is playing out today. Is it justified? Look at this 500mb (~20,000’) steering level wind chart. There are many moving parts to this. Like an engine, it must come together at the right time to work. The European model had the idea five days ago that this would miss and then lost it. The model is so trusted, given its track record, and it’s almost to a fault, which was exposed here. Other ideas weren’t on board with the level of the European model, and others were on the miss the whole time. The gig was up when the short-term ideas weren’t buying what the Euro was selling. That is when the forecast began to head to the dumpster. The discrepancy 48 hours before the event was striking. The Euro was on its own boat, and unfortunately, by the time it hit a rock and began to sink, it was too late for all on board. I am not going to give away all the trade secrets here, but with the large spread of ideas that were out there, bust potential was incredibly high with this one. Models are like third-hand car salesmen. The hood of the vehicle looks shiny, but the transmission could be junk. All have their flaws and biases. No one model has the right answer. When they don’t line up, there are red flags that need to be flown. Messaging is a constant challenge in the weather forecasting field. I look to continue to improve at it. Expect a breezy pattern to take shape Tuesday 7 AM (12z) to Thursday 7 PM (00z Friday) - A northeast wind increases through the day primarily over the coastal plain as the storm to the south cranks up. As the storm passes to the southeast and intensifies, the direction shifts to the northwest and blows hard through Wednesday and into Thursday. As high pressure moves in for a brief visit Thursday night, the breeze settles. Expect wind chills below zero in the mountains and north, with single digits and teens toward the shorelines. Wind gusts in the mountains could reach 40-50 mph on Wednesday and may cause holds on the ski lifts. There could be some isolated power outages, and potential for trash cans to tip over for those with curbside pick up. Looking ahead, expect breezy conditions to be part of the weather story heading into the weekend and into next week. A sneaky clipper on the way Friday Thursday 7 AM (12z) to Friday 7 PM (00z Saturday) - This clipper system idea is a bit intriguing to me. Showing the spread in ensemble ideas is one eye opener, but also the trajectory that it is coming in from.  Anytime a clipper shows the idea of firing up a surface low in the vicinity of the Gulf of Maine, it’s worth paying attention to it. Occasionally, one could surprise pending on the setup. This one shows some potential of that. For now, it looks like a 1-3” snow event for Jackman over to Bar Harbor to the south for Friday. The 40° ocean water adds to the curiosity as a potential precipitation enhancer. The short term ideas will start to get a read on this for Wednesday and time will tell if there is anything more to this. Temperatures and outlook through MondayThe normal high and low for the north for February 13th is 23° and 4°, for the south 35° and 17°. Temperatures are expected run on the warm side on the low end and on the cool side on the high end through early next week. There is an idea of another clipper system for the weekend, but ideas are widely scattered and confidence in that is extremely low at this point.     Thank you to Allspeed Cyclery & Snow in Portland, Downeast Aerial Photography in Rockland, Dutch Elm Golf Club in Arundel, and Sunrise Property Services in Bridgton, for partnering with Pine Tree Weather. Special thanks to all the individuals and businesses who financially contribute. I sincerely appreciate your support. Always have MULTIPLE ways to receive weather alerts. Stay updated, stay on alert, and stay safe! - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the PTW IN MEDIA page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
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