Travel impacts This is the Weather Prediction Center's Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI) which indicates minor travel impacts over much of the region, with moderate travel impacts possible over the far north. While this is the general idea overall, there could be times where travel will be more of a challenge as deformation bands become heavy at times over the region in the afternoon as the storm tracks to the northeast. As the intensifying storm passes through the Gulf of Maine, a north / northeast wind will increase which will blow the snow around, which could cause reduced visibility and whiteout conditions. This is more of a concern for the southern shoreline communities up into eastern and northern areas. NorEaster in development to impact the region All of the pieces are coming together to fire up a NorEaster that will race through the region for the day. The track will run into the Gulf of Maine and exit in the Eastport / Grand Manan area and into New Brunswick Tuesday evening. Snow to start off over the region By-in-large, this is a snow event for all. Given the forecast track with some wiggle room built in, there is the risk of a bit of a junky mix and perhaps some rain for the DownEast shorelines which could come later in the afternoon toward evening. With the track idea so close to the coast, I do not see how the south coast, MidCoast, and eastern areas escape without a precipitation type change. I am not expecting a lot of it. It may diminish snowfall amounts a smidge as you will see. It may make for a bit of a sloppy clean-up for the DownEast shorelines and islands, but on the flip side it may cut down on the risk of blowing snow heading into the rest of the week. Snowfall intensity and amounts Tuesday 6 AM to Wednesday 3 AM (Times Zulu minus 5 hours) - Looking at potential hourly snowfall rates in this loop. I mentioned in Monday's discussion that when the coastal front works into the region, snow is likely to intensify to the north of it. This idea shows the potential for 1-2"+ during the evening commute and into the night for northern areas and is backed up with other short term guidance.  Tuesday 6 AM to Wednesday 3 AM (Times Zulu minus 5 hours) - Looking at modeled precipitation type loop shows the potential for the junky mix and rain to work in along the south coast, MidCoast, on up into eastern areas as the storm departs. As wind changes direction to the northwest, those areas may see a switchback to snow as cold air pumps in behind the departing low.  Where accumulations may over perform will be along that coastal front as the meteorological process known as frontogenesis comes into play. I can see cases where the taller ski hills in the western mountains could pick up a foot. For my Bangor area followers who are riding the line, I can see 4-8" around the city. The fluff factor (snow to water ratio) will be high for all areas to start off. Interior areas stay on the high end, where much of the coastal plain in the 2-5" region go from high in the morning to moderate to low later in the day as the front works in off the ocean. Blowing snow and bitter wind chill through Wednesday Tuesday 6 AM to Wednesday 7 PM (Times Zulu minus 5 hours) - A look at modeled sustained wind speeds in this loop. Given the fact the storm developing as it passes through, the northeast wind speeds aren't crazy for the shoreline communities and adjacent areas. It will be gusty at times in the 20-25 mph range which will blow the snow around on the front side. As the intensifying storm heads into New Brunswick, the northwest wind picks up on the back side and increase gusts to the 20-30 mph range with 30-45 mph appearing likely for the mountains Outside of the areas protected by the shade of the mountains, snow is expected to blow around Tuesday night and Wednesday, which adds insult to injury for travel statewide. The breeze settles somewhat heading into Wednesday night, but it appears that it will be around through the rest of the week and into the weekend.  Tuesday 6 AM to Wednesday 7 PM (Times Zulu minus 5 hours) - With the increase of wind speed comes the decrease in ambient temperature. The wind chill will be the main weather story for the rest of the week as reinforcing shortwaves pass through, which will drive temperatures lower through the weekend. Time to turn down the volume After this unprecedented stretch of significant and major storms, the region takes a break in the action. A storm is expected to develop off shore Thursday night into Friday, and that appears to be wide miss. With the reinforcing waves passing through, the mountains could see snow shower activity, and light snow is possible everywhere at some point on Saturday as a back door cold front is expected to move into the region from the northeast and pivot to the southwest. It may be mid next week before we see any storm of widespread impact. Thank you for supporting my mission that comes at a price Thank you to Allspeed Cyclery & Snow in Portland, Downeast Aerial Photography in Rockland, Dutch Elm Golf Club in Arundel, and Sunrise Property Services in Bridgton, for partnering with Pine Tree Weather. Special thanks to all the individuals who financially contribute. I sincerely appreciate your support. Always have MULTIPLE ways to receive weather alerts. Thank you for being part of my journey. Stay updated, stay on alert, and stay safe! - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the Who I Am page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
|
