Tuesday January 23, 2024

1/23/2024

Two waves and two storms through Sunday

After a bit of lull from an intense period between mid-December and mid-January, the pattern gets busy through the first of next week. While Wednesday's wave is more localized over the southwest, the wave Wednesday night into Thursday and an inside runner storm for Friday are likely to be more widespread across the region. To cap it off, there is storm potential for Sunday.

Needless the say the early mornings and extra coffee will continue for this forecaster.

Tuesday sets up Wednesday

This early morning snapshot of the 500mb steering level wind speeds shows how Wednesday is going to play out. An upper-level high to the north shows its arriving like a boss up against its counterpart over the Atlantic. This will cut off the moisture stream from the Gulf of Mexico that is being pinwheeled up by the upper low near the Rockies, and keep the first wave shunted to the south.

A look at the forecast surface map idea for 1:00 Tuesday shows the surface high arriving to cut off the moisture surge. The result for the day is some mountain snow showers with clouds around, and above normal temperatures.

Noted on here is the upper-level energy arriving over the southwest for Friday's storm. I'll get back to that.

Light snow idea remains on track for the southwest
on Wednesday

Wednesday 1 AM (06z) to 3 PM (20z) - As mentioned in Monday's post, timing is not good for morning commute. While this wave is more of a nuisance than anything, there will be enough snow to cause slick spots on the roads less traveled. Fortunately we have not had rain since the previous storm, so the well salted streets and highways have a running start to handle this one.

Snowfall rates as the NAM3km model indicates should be manageable for plow crews to deal with.

As the snow tapers off later in the day, far southern areas may pick up a touch of freezing rain or warm rain as a parting gift before the next wave moves in Wednesday night into Thursday.

The mountains could get a couple inches of charity flakes out of this, but for most of the western areas, Capital District, and MidCoast regions, an inch or less of leaf blower snow is what is expected there. For western Oxford County along with Cumberland and York County, it's a 1-3" event. Coastal York from the home office region in Kennebunk to Kittery may see some ocean effect snow pending on where the stationary boundary sets up, which if that happens could increase totals in the 2-4" range.

A junkier wave passes through
Wednesday night into Thursday

Wednesday 3 PM (20z) to Thursday 1 PM (18z) - This is more of a concern for overnight travelers over western areas and for the morning commute over eastern areas. This wave, like it predecessor does not have much in the way of liquid equivalent precipitation. This is another nuisance wave where it could bring just enough ice to slick untreated surfaces up. The blessing in disguise here is the salt on the roads from the Wednesday morning snows should handle what ice forms. Overall, the impacts appear minimal for this cold air damming situation.

The volume turns up a bit for Thursday night into Friday

Thursday 7 PM (00z Friday) to Friday 10 PM (03z Saturday) - It will be interesting to see how models respond to the upper-level energy passing over the southwest on Tuesday. I've stated many times that guidance tends to lose it given the terrain of the Sonoran Desert and the mountains to the north causing ideas to get a bit jumpy.

The idea for now is a good snow event for the north, rain for the south, and a junky mix in between. There appears to be a bit more juice associated with this storm, which brings more in the way of precipitation. A rather stiff breeze for the coast and the ski hills is a possibility with the wind direction from the south / southeast, but not to the level of impact given the weak nature of the system as it appears for now.

There is a concern for heavy wet snow over the interior, which could bring the risk of isolated power outages.

Sunday storm potential one to keep tabs on

As I mentioned in Monday's update, I suspected there would be a shift to the west with model ideas, and in case of the European ensemble ideas, that has taken place. It's a bit of an outlier compared to its counterparts for the moment. High pressure moving in to the north with its position and strength will dictate how this plays out. It's too early to get into details other than that. The chance is there for this to be the strongest of the systems in the current string, but there is plenty of room for changes.

Stay tuned.

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