Finish storm preparation by evening I am not going to mince words here, we’re in for it. Not only are we in for it with this storm, but there is also potential for two more strong storms in the pipeline within the next week. Widespread power outages are likely on Wednesday. Power outages are possible again Saturday and again next week. For those areas that get hit hard out of the gate here, you could be without power for quite a while, especially those on a short line. Utility companies are likely to have a difficult time with restoration of electricity and internet with this active pattern of strong storms. I mentioned earlier in the week that we were going to be tested mentally, physically, and spiritually. The rubber is about to meet the road. It’s going to get real and fast. We are going to have to dig in deep to get through this stretch, and we will need to depend on each other to get through it. We’re all in the same boat, the ocean is about to get very rough, and appears to be that way until further notice. Stay updated on the forecast and have multiple ways to receive weather alerts. Timing and impacts Tuesday 4 PM to Wednesday 7 PM - Taking precipitation type out of this to show intensity in liquid form to make a point. This storm is intense with the strong moisture hose attached to it. Where is snows it will dump hard, where it rains it will pour. The change over from snow / mix / rain is going to be a challenge the whole way through. There will be some ice involved here as cold air damming plays a role in this. Travel overnight into Wednesday is likely to be problematic, if not impossible between the snow and the wind over the interior. Southern areas will be dealing with flooding.  The wind is the key feature that could bring the most impact to the region either directly along the coast or indirectly in conjunction with heavy wet snow over the interior. The strongest gusts are expected for the MidCoast and DownEast shores associated with the south / southeast wind direction. High end speeds can also be expected over the mountains. The good news is that the window for the strongest wind gusts appears relatively narrow with a shorter period expected than the storm back on December 18th. Timing of the strong wind works in tandem with the heaviest precipitation. As precipitation falls, wind speeds increase. As the precipitation rates increase, the wind increases along with it. As precipitation tapers off, the strongest winds decrease with it. There is about a 10 to 12-hour window where precipitation and wind will be at peak. For western and southern areas, that window appears to be between midnight and 8-10 AM Wednesday. For areas from Penobscot Bay north and east, the window is a bit longer, between 3 AM and 3 PM.  This is where the forecast gets more difficult, and where bust potential is highest, especially south of the mountains. The idea is snow to start off, the question is for how long. This is dependent upon the development and intensification of the secondary low that is expected to develop along the approaching frontal boundary. Confidence is good for areas north of the mountains to stay snow longer. For the south / southeast facing slopes down through the foothills and interior areas of the coastal plain is where it gets tough. The same case can be made for the Moosehead, Baxter State Park and southern Aroostook areas as well. With southeast winds aloft throwing moisture into cold air being funneled in from high pressure to the north, the strength of the warm front moving northward will dictate when the flip to a mix of sleet and freezing rain then to all rain takes place. Some model ideas see little in the way of the junk mix, where others hang on to it longer. This impacts how much wet snow accumulates on trees, and that affects the potential for power and internet loss. Confidence is good that this region starts as snow and could see 6” of it over interior areas before the precipitation type changes. Confidence is also good that this area ends as rain during the morning and afternoon on Wednesday. It’s the in-between where there is uncertainty.  Where the areas that received the higher accumulations of snow from the Sunday storm have the greatest concern for flooding. This flooding is NOT expected to be anywhere the magnitude experienced back in December. That said, rivers like the Saco, Presumpscot, Royal, and Androscoggin should be monitored for rising water from runoff, but overall, river flooding appears minimal. The idea of 2-3” of rain along with upwards of 1” contained in the Sunday snowpack brings the total of 3-4” of water that will be going places. With the ground frozen, that runoff will be going for brooks, streams, rivers, roadways, urban streets, basements and perhaps some places that folks may not have seen flood before. The effects of the runoff will linger after the rain ends in this area Wednesday morning.  Minor to moderate flooding is expected in the two hours leading up to and after the high-water mark. Seas upwards of 20 feet along with storm surge in the 2-4’ range with astronomically high tides running roughly 2 feet higher than half-moon normal will bring problems for the shorelines. Splash over, beach erosion, along with flooding and inundation are all likely here, with the low spots most susceptible to having issues. The good news is that for the southwest coast, the high wind speeds are expected to drop prior to the time of high tide, but the margin of error is within 2 hours. That does not appear to be the case for MidCoast and DownEast areas, however. As a result, that is where the greatest concern lies. Beyond the Wednesday morning high tide, the two following high tides Wednesday evening and Thursday morning could feature splash over as well as the surf continues. With another storm on the way on Saturday with astronomical tides at their peak, concerns for the shorelines are likely again. The aftermath leaves no rest for the weary Thursday 1 AM to Sunday 7 PM After the storm moves out, a west / southwesterly breeze ensues in its wake. Wind speed in the 5-15 range with gusts 20-30 mph are possible through Thursday. A weak cold front is expected to pass through Thursday night which may bring snow showers to the mountains overnight. High pressure passes through on Friday with a calm, cold start before clouds increase in the afternoon. We play a similar game with the next system arriving overnight Friday with another windy snow to junk to rain event to deal with on Saturday. At this point it does not appear to be quite as windy as Wednesday’s offering, but it may come close as this could be another strong storm. It appears to feature another round of heavy wet snow for the interior, potential for an inch or two of rain for the coastal plain, another round of stiff wind that could bring power outages, and concerns for the shorelines with high tide around 11 AM. As we have seen with the storm on the way Wednesday, the forecast trend went cooler, and that may be the case for this one also, so stay tuned. Looking longer out, there is another significant storm possible Tuesday into Wednesday. This may feature more in the way of snow and is also likely to feature wind as well. It may be a classic NorEaster snow event. Honest, no bias, straight weather talk comes at a cost for me Thank you to Allspeed Cyclery & Snow in Portland, Downeast Aerial Photography in Rockland, Dutch Elm Golf Club in Arundel, and Sunrise Property Services in Bridgton, for partnering with Pine Tree Weather. Special thanks to all the individuals who financially contribute. I sincerely appreciate your support. Stay updated, stay on alert, and stay safe! - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the Who I Am page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
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