Early spring clipper system to bring some spice This is an intriguing setup for this storm on the way Wednesday into Thursday. Looking here at the 500mb steering level heights and mean sea level pressure idea of the European ensemble mean shows the sharpest negative tilt of the season thus far. If there is a chance for the overperformance of snowfall for the mountains and north, this is one of the better situations for it to happen. The one key element missing here is the lack of moisture. The absence of the sub-tropical jet means whatever amount of precipitation will be generated from what it can tap into from the Gulf of Maine. How this will play out depends on the sharpness of the tilt of the trough and how quickly the surface low can get organized and tap into what moisture it can grab from the ocean. It’s a high-risk / high-reward situation for snowfall for that reason. That is code for bust potential. Breaking it down Wednesday 2 AM (06z) to Friday 8 AM (12z) – Looking over the operational ideas and their herky-jerky trends because they can’t figure out the sharpness of the trough and the energy it conjures up has me leaning on ensembles heavily to cut through their bull. I like the European ensemble mean idea for a track at this point. With the surface low potentially getting its act together Wednesday evening, this favors snowfall as solar insolation (daytime heating) won’t be a factor. The northwestern side of the surface low will haul the cold air in. The storm continues to intensify as it heads into the Gulf of St. Lawrence on Thursday. Precipitation ends over the north heading into Friday morning.  Given the dynamics involved here, this is my first call for snow factors in the variables discussed. There is leeway with the timing and intensity. My confidence is fair that southern areas may not get a whole lot out of this. For the west, east, central, and north, it’s a “stay tuned” situation. The confidence is high that the Thursday morning commute may be a bear in areas that get higher end snow and has to do with the wind. The wind will also make this a challenge to get accurate reads on snowfall amounts.  As I was looking over the ideas early Tuesday morning, the thought of “ground blizzard conditions” crept into my mind. That idea is certainly on the discussion board where snowfall is higher. That could be the case for the mountains. With the storm cranking up as it leaves, frozen precipitation is going to blow around. Time will tell if a wind advisory is posted. For the folks who dwell in the higher elevations, keep your phones charged. Expect the stiff breeze to continue Thursday night through Friday evening. More snow possible for the weekend Friday 8 PM (00z Saturday) to Sunday 8 PM (00z Monday) – Southern areas that escape any meaningful snowfall Wednesday night into Thursday may get in on the action Saturday. The subtropical jet missing in action from the midweek event tries to nose its way up the eastern seaboard in the form of a warm front. The timing of this is critical for precipitation outcome. The initial idea is for a snow-to-rain event, with more in the way of frozen, with a bit of liquid as a parting gift. Forecast details to come. Stay tuned! Check out PTW for information 24 hours a day Thank you to Allspeed Cyclery & Snow in Portland, Downeast Aerial Photography in Rockland, Dutch Elm Golf Club in Arundel, and Sunrise Property Services in Bridgton, for partnering with Pine Tree Weather. Special thanks to all the individuals and businesses who financially contribute. I sincerely appreciate your support. Always have MULTIPLE ways to receive weather alerts. Stay updated, stay on alert, and stay safe! - Mike PRINT MEDIA: Feel free to quote and cite my work here for your stories. Please give me the professional courtesy of knowing that you are referencing my material so I can read your final product and acknowledge it on my media and link it on the PTW IN MEDIA page here on the website. Feel free to send me a message via the Facebook page or Twitter (X) to get my phone number if necessary. Thank you! NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you. |
Mike Haggett
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