What we see is what we get for a while
There is not a whole lot of change at the 500mb (~20,000 ft.) steering level from the past few days, and there won't be much change with it anytime soon. There will be some ripples of troughs and ridges, but no blocking around per se keeps the west to east flow moving rapidly. The idea through mid-month is cool and dry overall with a bit of a warmup on the way before Thanksgiving.
Cold front passes through Tuesday afternoon
Tuesday 6 AM to Wednesday Midnight - Areas of the region waking up to rain and snow showers see those blow through with a pause for most roughly midday before a cold front passes through in the afternoon. Wind from the south that pumps mild air in will shift to the northwest and bring a reminder of where we are on the planet and the time of year Tuesday night. It could be breezy at times through the day with gusts generally in the 20s for the coastal plain and 30-40 mph for the mountains and north. The western mountains see snow showers fetch up as the moisture clears out Tuesday night. The higher hilltops may pick up an inch or two of fluff, but it will blow around as the wind cranks up heading into Wednesday morning.
Seasonably cold and windy Wednesday
After the mild day on Tuesday, Wednesday may feel like a slap in the face. With the departing storm amplifying over the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the northwest wind will be fairly steady and bring cold air into the region. Expect wind chills to be below freezing everywhere all day. Ah, November!
The strongest wind gusts are expected over the higher elevations from Katahdin west. The National Weather Service Gray is contemplating a wind advisory for the western mountains as predicted speeds may reach the criteria. The stiff breeze could bring the risk of some isolated power outages in areas. The wind peaks around midday before gradually decreasing in the afternoon and settling by Thursday morning.
A bit of junk on the way for southwestern areas Thursday
Thursday 1 AM to Friday 7 AM - A weak warm front tries to nose its way into the region Thursday and could bring a mix of snow, sleet, and rain southwestern areas with snow showers possible to the north. This system appears moisture starved, but it may have enough precipitation to slick up the roads a bit away from the shorelines. The concern with this event is more on the sleet side with the risk of freezing rain to be very low. Cold air damming is well apparent here, so I can't rule it out, but the idea of a warm nose well above the surface indicates a better chance for sleet. Most of the precipitation falls during the day which may bring minor travel impacts. There is the risk of a few bursts of heavier precipitation as that is what warm fronts have a history of doing. Just be aware of that as you go about your day.
Temperature and outlook through Monday
Once the system clears out Thursday night, that will be it for any statewide precipitation for a week or more. The mountains see some snow shower activity Friday into Saturday before tapering off. High pressure settles in and keeps temperatures cool well into next week.
I've got your back. Do you have mine?
Winter SKYWARN training sessions upcoming
The cost and training are FREE. You do not have to be meteorologically savvy to become a trained spotter. All that is needed is a causal interest in weather and a desire to learn more about it. The seminars are fast paced with a lot of information, along with items you may not have been aware of.
This is the WINTER weather seminar. If you participated in the SPRING seminar, you should attend this one to be fully trained. If you are a current spotter and have not done one of these in the past three years, you should sign up for a refresher.
For training through NWS Caribou (Aroostook, Hancock, Piscataquis, Penobscot, Northern Somerset, and Washington Counties), please click on the following dates to register:
Wednesday, November 8th from 6 - 7:15 PM
Wednesday, November 15th from 6 - 7:15 PM
Friday, November 17th from 6 - 7:15 PM
For more information, please check out the NWS Caribou SKYWARN page.
For training through NWS Gray (Androscoggin, Cumberland, Franklin, Kennebec, Knox, Lincoln, Oxford, central and southern Somerset, Waldo, and York Counties along with ALL of New Hampshire), please click on the following dates to register:
Monday, November 13 from 6 - 7:30 PM
NWS Gray is also offering a special COASTAL FLOOD spotter training seminar
Wednesday November 15th from 6 - 7:30 PM
This was well attended last fall. I know a few of you missed it last year that wanted to participate, so here is your chance.
For more information, please check out the NWS Gray SKYWARN page.
Thank you for your years of following and for your financial support.
It is because of your funding that this operation continues.
God bless and stay strong.
Be good to yourself.
Stay updated, stay on alert, and stay safe!
NOTE: The forecast information depicted on this platform is for general information purposes only for the public and is not designed or intended for commercial use. For those seeking pinpoint weather information for business operations, you should use a private sector source. For information about where to find commercial forecasters to assist your business, please message me and I will be happy to help you.